Indo-Pakistan détente: A possibility or a pipe dream?
by Jaibans Singh on 24 Sep 2012 13 Comments

The recently concluded ministerial level meeting between India and Pakistan resulted in the declaration of a liberalised visa regime, a positive development of course, but also one which will be judged by its application on the ground. Regardless of the processes, Indians can enter Pakistan only after clearance from the country’s dominant spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Be that as it may, the fresh spate of meetings and talks between the two countries compels articulation of the vital and elusive aspect of Indo-Pakistan détente!!!

 

Is the concept a pipe dream or a possibility for the future? The complexity of the subject is the result of the many imponderables that mark the relationship between the two countries. The silver lining is that even talk of détente is a long and positive journey from the times, not too long back, when Kashmir was considered to be a nuclear flashpoint and South Asia was proclaimed as the most dangerous place on earth.

 

It would not be too off the mark to suggest that the whole process of normalisation of relations is being held hostage to a palpable trust deficit. The social factor has been somewhat accommodating towards breaking the ice; flashes of political will can be seen every now and then as in the present scenario. Yet, some factors come up and destroy whatever progress is being made, doubtless engineered by vested interests. In this millennium itself, the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 and then the terrorist attack on Mumbai in 2008 put the clock back in the dialogue process and caused some very belligerent military and diplomatic stand-offs. These terrorist attacks were as significant as the four wars that the two countries have fought since independence.

 

It is providence that India decided to put the ghost of the Mumbai terrorist attack behind it and engage Pakistan in dialogue after a long hiatus. Undoubtedly some prodding by the US pushed matters as did the interactions between the Indian Prime Minister and the Prime Minister and President of Pakistan over the last few months. The subsequent secretary and the ministerial level meetings have had their fair share of pitfalls, such as the insistence of the Pakistanis to meet with Kashmiri separatists during their visits to India and the unyielding postures being adopted with respect to strategic issues like Sir Creek and Siachen. Notwithstanding these irritants, there has been some forward movement.

 

Engagement between the two countries must nevertheless be considered against the backdrop of the ground situation. India counts cross-border terrorism as the single biggest factor in the way of détente, rapprochement and normalisation of relations. For Pakistan, Kashmir continues to remain the main bone of contention, supplemented now by the insecurity that the nation feels with regard to the waters of the mighty Indus.

 

It is widely perceived that the hardened political posture being adopted by Pakistan is coming in the way of meaningful dialogue. But the point is being missed that the hardened posture is the result of the political instability, power struggle and turmoil in Pakistan. The country has a government which has legitimacy but no authority, an army which has authority but no legitimacy, and a fundamentalist third front which has neither authority nor legitimacy but intense power. Within India also, fragmented politics is leading to diverse opinions which make it difficult to create an atmosphere conducive for dialogue. The underlying broad political consensus is missing in both countries.

 

As far as terrorism is concerned, the real problem is Pakistan’s inability to control its fundamentalist elements which are present not only in the militant groups but, more disturbingly, in its political leadership and in the army. These elements look belligerently at India as a whole and not only through the prism of Kashmir. It is, therefore, logical for India to believe that that the government of Pakistan has a say in cross border terrorism; still, it may be prudent to give space to the Pakistanis to resolve their issues internally.

 

In turn, Pakistan needs to move forward in containing its militant Islamist groups and also to be seen to be doing so. It is quite evident that Islamabad no longer wishes to place the Kashmir issue centre stage in the Indian-Pakistan dialogue to the extent that it jeopardises its relationship with New Delhi. Pakistani leadership has realised that it has to place the country first and for doing so it has to moderate its stand on Kashmir.

 

Today it is the separatists in Jammu and Kashmir who are clamouring to be a part of the India-Pakistan dialogue process, while Pakistan is exhibiting a mutated inclination to accommodate them. This is because Pakistan wishes to move forward in other areas which the separatists may not allow. Under the circumstances, Kashmir can be kept on a slow burn, albeit discreetly.

 

With Pakistan being given space to resolve its internal contradictions and the centre of gravity being shifted from Kashmir, the stage would be set for giving prominence to some socio-economic aspects which have remained peripheral till now. Attention can be given to such day to day issues which affect the lives of people in Kashmir and elsewhere in both nations, particularly in Pakistan. Since economy drives politics in the modern age, it may be beneficial to open some more doors for economic cooperation which can lift the spirits of the beleaguered common man, particularly in Pakistan.

 

The manner in which the dialogue process is proceeding gives reason for hope; it is pragmatic and sensible and can gain momentum by following a reasonable path. What is of importance now is Pakistan’s response. In case the country can, after six long decades of hate-mongering, finally get its act together and pursue the path of realism, things will definitely improve.

 

The author is Editor, Defence Info.com

User Comments Post a Comment
We don't know you, you don't know us. That is the best policy.

Of course, we need to have diplomatic and trade relations with them. That's where it should stop.
Mouton85111
September 24, 2012
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the paki arab state is being abandoned by its most important benefactor - the USA ... when pakistan finds itself on thin ice it professes its desire to have a closer relationship with India... if its current state of affairs with the USA improves the paki arabs will go right back to the same old game they have been playing since 1947 ...
Mouton85111
September 24, 2012
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don't worry about "lifting the spirits of the beleaguered common man" in pakistan ...
don't waste time with those islamo arabs on the other side of the border ... diplomatic and trade relations, yes ... do not go beyond that ...
Mouton85111
September 24, 2012
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Observer Sir, I am waiting for your analysis
wahid
September 24, 2012
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The problems will never be solved as it is never in the interests of the americans to have a stable south Asia. Both India and Pakistan governments are puppets on a string of America and the americans will continue to pursue a policy to entrench her interests.
jan
September 24, 2012
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An empty series of meetings, empty promises and the usual cosmetic surgery to hide the scars of partition and 2 centuries of divisions left by the British.I will say if India has the conviction to peace and give Kashmiris their self determination and remove forces from Siachen, return Sir Creek, Manvadar and Junagadh and stop interfering and stirring up unrest in Baluchistan (like during Russian adventure or misadventure). At the same time drastically change her Pakistan centric hate filled media & foreign policy she will have so much to gain.Pakistan too will then stop her Indian centric foreign policy only then together Pakistan & India can link Central Asia, North Asia with South Asia & The Asia Pacific. We can make this Asia’s century a region with far more potential than Europe. Instead we will remain fragmented as nations across Asia and non Asian state actors will take advantage of these divides, monopolising on the potential we have as one to make themselves prosperous.
observer
September 24, 2012
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Yes, it really is pipe dream. You may notice that India-Pakistan rivalry is not about clash of national interests. If it were so, a careful study of common interests would help towards the better relations. However, the real issue is Islamic insistence on subjugating Kafirs, and Pakistan as a Muslim nation insisting on subjugation of Hindus.

Unless Pakistan society goes through renaissance and repudiates Islam along the lines of Turkey, there will not be peace between an Islamic state and a secular democracy. The carefully staged illusion is meant only to placate Indians when the tension with Americans on the rise. Pakistan try to bluff India that they have support of 1 billion Muslims, 1 billion Chinese and America. Guess what? There are none.

Others are not fools to follow Pakistani whim. Thus Pakistan is forced to blow hot and cold. Otherwise, the constant remains their hatred against, not India, but Hindus.
Tilak
September 24, 2012
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american think tanks are pushing for the creation of an independent balochistan ... the idea is receiving support from an increasing number of legislators in washington.

breaking up pakistan is a surefire way to kill pakistan's appetite for exporting violence and terror in the neighborhood ...

except for normal diplomatic and trade relations, any other contact with that country and its people should not be encouraged by our government ...
Mouton85111
September 24, 2012
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India has failed her population and kept South Asia in penury. China has. Malaysia has provided her citizens with a decent standard of living. Pakistanis will work out their problems. Don’t worry and don’t pontificate. The best development in Asia was NOT achieved by India, but by China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore and Malaysia…go figure! A discussion on reasons why external powers imposed leaders on small countries is well known.
The Farce of Bharati “democracy” was shattered by the Dr. Ambedkar and the Dalits who after 60 years have not been able to get the “right to live” and or shed the bondage of slavery and untouchability. The Untouchables, Dalits and Shudras represent 450 million people, but they are subservient to majoratarianism which is controlled by a coterie of upper caste familis. The Nehru/Gandhi famliy have a stranglehold on the politics of Bharat and they will not allow alternate leadership.
And to further his cause he points out: “The Indian society does not consist of individuals. It consists of innumerable collection of castes, which are exclusive in their life and have no common experience to share and have no bond of sympathy. The existence of caste system is a standing denial of the existence of those ideals of society and therefore of democracy. An Indian cannot eat or marry with an Indian simply because he or she does not belong to his or her caste. An Indian simply can not touch an Indian because he or she does belong to his or her caste.” Ambedkar questions the political system and how Congress party field its candidate and how they are selected carefully on the basis of their caste. Ambedkar says : “How does an Indian vote in an election? He votes for a candidate who belongs to his own caste and no other Further he considers caste system as a bane to democracy. ‘ Castes are not equal in their status. They are standing one above another. They are jealous of one another. It is an ascending scale of hatred and descending scale of contempt. The feature of caste system has most pernicious consequences. It destroys willing and helpful cooperation.” Countercurrents. Caste And Democracy In India By Vidya Bhushan Rawat
Khan Sahib
September 25, 2012
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Khan you are still alive...but I notice that you still have the same problem of low self esteem and call yourself a "Sahib"...

But anyways, India had, has and will continue to have different castes from time immemorial and has learned to live harmoniously and proper. The same cannot be said about Papistan where the followers of religion of peace are killing each other based on their personal affiliations to differnet sects of Islam...so go and fix that and come back here...but before that get some self esteem and stop calling yourself "Sahib"
asha
September 25, 2012
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I am very upset over recent moves to take tens of tohasunds more jobs overseas !!As companies began this some time back we were told that it would eventually slaughter the American job market and it is doing a pretty good job of that as we speak !!And, as a competitor sees his business rival dropping prices in the market because of HIS use of cheaper foreign labor what is he to do but to follow suit in order TO compete ??It is a vicious cycle that is in serious need of a solution BEFORE it takes the income from the homes of the greater number of American families !!
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October 06, 2012
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October 09, 2012
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