What starts in Afghanistan does not stay in Afghanistan: China, India, and Iran grapple with the fallout
by James M Dorsey on 19 Aug 2021 7 Comments

Taliban advances in Afghanistan shift the Central Asian playing field on which China, India and the United States compete with rival infrastructure-driven approaches. At first glance, a Taliban takeover of Kabul [August 15-Ed] would give China a 2:0 advantage against the US and India, but that could prove to be a shaky head start.

 

The potential fall of the US-backed Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani will shelve if not kill Indian support for the Iranian port of Chabahar that was intended to facilitate Indian trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar was also viewed by India as a counterweight to the Chinese-supported Pakistani port of Gwadar, a crown jewel of the People’s Republic’s transportation, telecommunications and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

 

The United States facilitated Indian investment in Chabahar by exempting the port from harsh US sanctions against Iran. The exemption was intended to “support the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.” However, with negotiations with Iran about a revival of the 2015 international nuclear agreement stalled, the United States announced in July together with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan plans to create a platform that would foster regional trade, business ties and connectivity.

 

The connectivity end of the plan resembled an effort to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face. It would have circumvented Iran and weakened Chabahar but potentially strengthened China’s Gwadar alongside the port of Karachi. That has become a moot point with the plans certain to be shelved as the Taliban move to take over Kabul and form a government that would be denied recognition by at least the democratic parts of the international community.

 

Like other Afghan neighbors, neither Pakistan nor Uzbekistan or for that matter China are likely to join a boycott of the Taliban. On the contrary, China last month made a point of giving a visiting Taliban delegation a warm welcome. Recognition by Iran, Central Asian states and China of a Taliban government is however unlikely to be enough to salvage the Chabahar project. “Changed circumstances and alternative connectivity routes are being conjured up by other countries to make Chabahar irrelevant,” an Iranian source told Hard News and The Wire.

 

The Taliban have sought to reassure China, Iran, Uzbekistan and other Afghan neighbors that they will not allow Afghanistan to become an operational base for jihadist groups, including Al Qaeda and Uighur militants of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP).

 

The Taliban have positioned themselves as solely concerned with creating an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan and having no inclination to operate beyond the borders of the Central Asian state, but have been consistent in their refusal to expel Al Qaeda, even if the group is a shadow of what it was when it launched the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington 20 years ago.

 

The TIP has occasionally issued videos documenting its presence in Afghanistan but has, by and large, kept a low profile in the country and refrained from attacking Chinese targets in Afghanistan or across the border in Xinjiang, the north-western Chinese province in which authorities have brutally cracked down on ethnic Turkic Uighurs.

 

As a result, the Taliban reassurance was insufficient to stop China from repeatedly advising its citizens to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. “Currently, the security situation in Afghanistan has further deteriorated … If Chinese citizens insist on staying in Afghanistan, they will face extremely high-security risks, and all the consequences will be borne by themselves,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

 

The fallout of the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan, despite the group’s assurances, is likely to affect China beyond Afghan borders, perhaps no more so than in Pakistan, a major focus of the People’s Republic’s single largest Belt-and Road-related investment.

 

The investment has made China a target for attacks by militants, primarily Baloch nationalists. However, the killing in July of nine Chinese nationals in an explosion on a bus transporting Chinese workers to the construction site of a dam in the northern mountains of Pakistan, a region more prone to attacks by religious militants, raises the specter of jihadists also targeting China. It was the highest loss of life of Chinese citizens in recent years in Pakistan.

 

The attack occurred amid fears that the Taliban will bolster ultra-conservative religious sentiment in Pakistan that celebrates the group as heroes whose success enhances the chances for austere religious rule in the world’s second-most populous Muslim-majority state. “Our jihadis will be emboldened. They will say that ‘if America can be beaten, what is the Pakistan army to stand in our way?’” said a senior Pakistani official.

 

Indicating Chinese concern, China has delayed the signing of a framework agreement on industrial cooperation that would have accelerated the implementation of projects that are part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

 

Said scholar Kamran Bokhari: “Regime change is a terribly messy process. Weak regimes can be toppled; replacing them is the hard part. It is only a matter of time before the Afghan state collapses, unleashing chaos that will spill beyond its borders. All of Afghanistan’s neighbors will be affected to varying degrees, but Pakistan and China have the most to lose.”

The demise of Chabahar and/or the targeting by the Taliban of Hazara Shiites in Afghanistan could potentially turn Iran into a significant loser too.

 

Courtesy  

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/08/16/what-starts-in-afghanistan-does-not-stay-in-afghanistan-china-india-and-iran-grapple-with-the-fallout/ 

User Comments Post a Comment
The most pivotal issue is, how the Taliban handle the Hazara Shiites in Afghanistan.

My guess is that alienating Iran will hamstring the Pashtun economic stabilisation process. I really doubt that the Taliban are that stupid.

But the rest of Dorsey's article has me wondering how much of reality he sees. Pretty much the whole world now knows who was responsible for 9/11, and Afghanistan was never involved.

And references "democracies" is pretty gullible stuff.
Tony Ryan
August 19, 2021
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The biggest looser in this game is india (besides USA), modi put all his eggs in one basket (i.e., his anti Muslim agenda which is RSS's ideology) and now he his scratching his head and saying " hai rama what went wrong"?
India stands all alone in its neighborhood, all of his "bear hug " tactics (read conniving tactics) just evaporated in thin air and all countries left him one by one.
The 3 billion dollars that he invested in Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan went down the drain which could have been well spent in making toilets in india for more than half of the indian populous which goes open air each morning,
The recent snub from talibans to india shows how much india is respected in Afghanistan besides the "investments ".
Once again Hameed Gul's predictions came true when he said USA will leave regardless and modi is a gift for Pakistan !
observer
August 19, 2021
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Reports are that the Hazara leader whom the Taliban executed, his statute has been overturned now by the invading Taliban.

Rebellion is slowly building, with Saleh the Northern anti Taliban commander staking a claim as President of Afghanistan, since he was the vice president and the other guy fled. He and his followers are in an inaccessible place which the Talibs will find difficult to assault.

Today's pictures show women leading protests with the oldAfghan flag. The Taliban's attempt to show a moderate face has not lasted, with more killings etc. India will be wise to be silent till the last of Indians have been evacuated.

Today's news is also that the IMF has stopped the millions of Afghan fund so that the Taliban will not be able to access it. The order seems to have come directly from Biden himself.

The Taliban itself is a motlley crew which will not last. Many are Pashtuns who will not accept Pakistan's attempts to dominate them.

Russia is worried about its Islamic problem, so also China.

India, now in its Security Council speech has emphasised its long held philosophy : the terrorism must stop, democratic government must follow, international co operation is essential.

The psuedos in India who are jumping up and down trying to enlist India's support for a terrorist government are not going to suceed.
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
August 19, 2021
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India can do diddly-squat , it has always been playing a spoiler all along not only during this 40 years of the Afghan conflict (Soviet and USA combined) but even before when Afghanistan was ruled by Dawood in fifties and as usual history will repeat it self.
India has become a hub of terrorism, be it the state sponsored terrorism in its 7 sisters states ,red corridor or the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, all of its neighbors have suffered from the terrorism it exports , specially Pakistan.
When will world wake up to respond to the confession of modi in his countless venomous speeches where he boasted to have sent terrorist to East Pakistan and now in Baluchistan and KPK provinces of Pakistan.
His hate for Muslims was evident in his speech on 14 August (Pakistan's independence day) , he is hell bent for a second and FINAL vivisection of the remaining moth eaten bharat.
observer
August 19, 2021
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The only line I find acceptable in observer's comment is "moth eaten Bharat" - moths like observer himself/herself, a coward STILL afraid of revealing identity.
Raghu
August 20, 2021
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@observer
I don't know what the impact of the Taliban victory will have on India,probably bad knowing that all Islamic countries, even enemies, will unite against the hated Kafir nation. And there are plenty of fundamentalists within the country who will help them.
However, when you say " India -- hub of terrorism, -----7 siasters state---Jammu and Kashmir---,especialyy Pakistan " could you explain:

1.Cite reliable evidence in support of India has become the hub of terrorism. Specific information.
2. Three instances of state sponsored terrorism in 7 sisters states.
3. Historical evidence for illegal occupation of J&K ?
4 Which neighbours of India suffered from export of terrorism ?
5.Modi's boast. I haven't seen a single speech in which he claimed to have sent terrorists to any country. Give evidence - cite MSM reports in India.,not Al Jazeera, NYT, WP or Chinese sources
6. Yet he gave crores of rupees to Madrasas for upgrading education, gave relief to Muslim women demeaned by triple talaq, did not force govt control of Mosques and Churches, while not freeing Hindu temples whose income and wealth is used for secular purposes, didn't scrap RTE which favors minority institutions, etc.
The last wish is a pipe dream of a true Islamist
Govind Nair
August 20, 2021
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@ Shri Govindan Nair,

Glad that you gave a point by point rebuttal to 'observer'.

I have given up on this character. I believe he is a fake observer. His language and style are different from the original observer who used to comment on this site.

That observer was definitely an Indian Muslim, and during the period when I was on the Vijayavaani site his comments were not dramatic.

At any rate, whatever his identity, he is mistaken in his wishful thinking. Bharat has been around for thousands of years and will be around in the future thousands.

Vande Mataram
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
August 20, 2021
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