Will the upcoming Putin-Biden summit defuse the situation?
by Andrei on 27 Nov 2021 1 Comment

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has declared today [November 21-Ed] that a Biden-Putin summit was being worked on and that it could take place before the end of the year. If true, then this is, by definition, very good news.


What this news item also seems to suggest is that there is some very serious infighting taking place amongst the different clans/groups which rule over the US, NATO and the EU. The recent trip by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Georgia, the Ukraine and Romania strongly suggest that there is a clan which wants to push the Ukronazis into a war against Russia (Lloyd himself is too dull and obtuse to personally matter, but he is clearly the voice of the “war party” the same way other blacks, such as Powell or the two Rices, were used in the past). Ditto for the language coming out of the UK and the 3B+PU. This is especially true in the Ukraine where the topic of the imminent “liberation” of the Donbass from the accursed Moskals is featured on a daily basis (they are even working on laws they intend to impose upon the Donbass following their glorious victory).


The Poles are also using the (entirely man made) crisis at the border to wave their flags and predict that Poland would defeat Belarus in 3 days. It is a fact that Poland has a much bigger military than Belarus as it is a much bigger and much more populated country which got billions in subsidies from the EU but, as I wrote recently, the Poles have never been good soldiers, unlike the Belarussians which are truly formidable fighters and comparing these forces would be like comparing a pack perfumed and fluffy show-dog with a single lone wolf.


Numbers here matter a lot less than the quality, training, and determination of the soldiers on both sides. Besides, the moment a single Pole crosses the Belarusian border, Russia will immediately intervene and give Belarus her full support by bringing the reality of war to downtown Warsaw. At which point the Poles will run to NATO for protection, but won’t get it (just as Erdogan didn’t when Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 over Syria). For the Anglos, Poles are just another wannabe European cannon fodder, not real or even important “allies”: sure, there will be a huge barrage of protests and threats, but no Anglo will volunteer to go fight and die for Poland or the Ukraine.


As for the (legally obligatory, since they were approved by a UNSC Resolution) Minsk Agreements are all but officially dead, the Ukies have rejected them many times and we now know, thanks to Lavrov’s publication of this correspondence with Germany and France, that the Europeans have given the Ukies their full support, in fact they even rejected the notion that Kiev is legally obliged to negotiated directly with the LDNR. Yes, the western parties to the Minsk Agreements are supporting Kiev’s stance to not to even *talk* to the Donbass.


Such is the true face of European hypocrisy.


Finally, there are troop movements reported everywhere, both in the West and in Russia.  Russia also just made a double show of force by shooting down an old Russian satellite and by firing her newest hypersonic missile from a Russian Navy ship.


Yet Biden, and maybe even “Biden”, seem to be willing to talk to the Russians. For one thing, nobody would bother sending Victoria Nuland or William Burns to Moscow just to deliver some silly ultimatum. And if they had, then what would be the point of a Putin-Biden meeting anyway? No, these two visits clearly involved some very serious negotiations.


So, there are clearly forces in at least the USA which do not want to take the immense risks associated with a full-scale war with Russia.


What is especially striking is that the Russians have made it pretty clear that they are not interested in further discussions with the Ukies or, for that matter, for anybody in Europe.


They have even explained that stance by saying that neither Kiev nor anybody in the EU has any agency and that talking to them is a waste of time. Then came the amazing statement by Stoltenberg who declared that NATO should consider the option of deploying nuclear weapons east of Germany, at which point the Kremlin officially called the European “liars” and indicated that Russia would never accept such a state of affairs.


Putin himself was uncharacteristically blunt when he said that the EU/NATO are not paying any attention to Russian warnings. But then he added that now these warnings have had some effect, probably referring not to a change of attitude by the EU/NATO, but to a behind the scenes dialog between the USA and Russia.


Since a Presidential summit is only organized once both sides have already come to a general agreement, at least in principle, on at least some issues, if Putin and Biden do meet, that means that both sides have worked out at least the outlines of some kind important deal (not just empty statements, as was the case the first time around, at least officially).


In his recent speech Putin said “it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow”. If Biden is willing to not only give guarantees (the Russians, understandably, have “zero” trust in western promises, written or oral) but also to actually take actions, probably mutual, coordinated and verifiable actions by both sides, then a war in Europe could be avoided, rather easily in fact.


Will Biden undo the total mess created by Obama and Trump and their Neocon handlers? Maybe.


For one thing, such a major political success would certainly help Biden with his (currently atrocious) approval ratings in the USA. True, if both the US and Russia stand down in a verifiable way, that would give the US much more flexibility in dealing with China. But it is important to stress here that while Russia is under absolutely no obligation to help China, the Russians will never allow the US to defeat/subdue China, not only because the two countries are de facto allies (and even symbionts!), but also because both Putin and Xi know that they need to stand shoulder to shoulder not to win a war against the USA, but to avoid one, which is much more desirable and important than any “victory” however defined.


Besides, defusing the tensions in Europe will also give Russia more flexibility to develop her forces and means in the Russian Far East. Speaking of which, check out this very recent videos of Chinese strategic bombers flying under the protection of Russian Su-35s: These kind of joint patrols are now happening on a regular, almost daily, basis.


So if a deal about Europe is made between the US and Russia, both sides stand to gain a lot, and China won’t lose anything at all. In fact, I am absolutely sure that all the Russian moves towards the US are carefully coordinated with China, and vice-versa, of course.


Furthermore, though Kremlin officials did not clarify this issue, but several well connected military analysts which are close to the Kremlin (Igor Korotchenko for example) have indicated that the Russian statements about “we will not only destroy any weapon or force attacking us, but we will strike at the command centers which gave the attack order” refers not to Warsaw or Kiev, but to Brussels and even Washington DC. Of course, this has not been confirmed, but neither was this version ever denied. At the very least, for the folks now in Washington and Brussels, this is all becoming very personal very quickly. Good.


We need to keep this in mind every time we hear about NATO forces conducting exercises near the Russian border: Russia has no need to send ship or aircraft anywhere near the US border to “reach” any location in the United States, including location deep inland. So while the BBC or CNN don’t get to show what the Russians are doing (or capable of doing), you can be pretty sure that the folks at the Pentagon know the real score (see this article by Andrei Martyanov for details).


I would say that all the western sabre-rattling is political in purpose and nature; it “sends messages” as Anglo politicians love to say, while Russian sabre-rattling is purely military and primarily designed to impress the western military specialists and commanders.


Right now, since no weapons were fired in anger (yet!) both sides can step back from the precipice without losing face. Once the shooting starts, this will become much much harder.  So now is the time to act quickly and very decisively for all those who do not want war.


I have absolutely no idea if Biden himself is this (comparative) voice of reason in the White House or who in the collective “Biden” is behind this (maybe General Milley?), but if I am correct and such a voice of reason exists, then I sincerely wish them full success, as this is really the last, very last, chance for the adults in the room to tell the infantiles in the EU/NATO to stop talking nonsense and playing with (nuclear) fire.


The bad news is this: from the Russian statements it appears that Putin and Biden should meet somewhere within the next couple of weeks (I doubt that they will arrange such a meeting between the western Christmas and the New Year). That, in turn, means that the crazies in London, Warsaw and Kiev have only a few weeks to trigger a war, after that they might be told to cease and desist by the White House. In fact, one of the “craziest of all crazies” (a high distinction in the current Banderastan!) in Kiev, Alexey Arestovich, has declared that Russia will invade the Ukraine on the 24th of December while the West will be celebrating Christmas.


Considering how many times over the past 7 years the Ukies have been promising an “imminent” Russian attack, they must be getting really frustrated and since they have no political future without such a war, I would not put anything past these hate-filled and absolutely insane people, even the dumbest and craziest of all imaginable s***. So Russia better remain on full combat alert until she gets verifiable signs of real de-escalation.


So the next couple of weeks will be absolutely crucial: they will decide the outcome of the current struggle between the war party and the (relative) peace party in the USA which, in turn, will decide whether the NATO/EU crazies will be let loose or ordered to stand down by the only party in the West which still matters: the USA.


Courtesy The Saker


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