The Islamist terrorist attack that took place on April 22 in Pahalgam, located in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, has led to an unprecedented rise in tensions between India and Pakistan unseen over the last years.

Following the newest terrorist attack, as a result of which 26 Indian tourists died, India and Pakistan have, once again, found themselves close to another armed conflict in the disputed Kashmir region, dividing its territory into the mostly Indian Jammu and Kashmir and the smaller Pakistani Azad Kashmir. The Kashmir issue, inherited from the British partition of India in 1947, has already led to three armed conflicts between the two neighbouring states and serves as the reason for decades of tension in their relations.

A sharp rise in tensions

The current flare-up of the Islamist, terrorist ‘Resistance Front’ organisation has evoked a sharp escalation of tensions in the disputed region and was accompanied by border guards exchanging shots at each other along the so-called Line of Control, which appeared after the first conflict between the two states in 1947. India believes – not without reason, it seems – that Pakistani special services were to some degree involved in the attack, although Islamabad firmly denies its involvement and calls for an independent investigation. Be that as it may, this tragic incident may not just evolve into another conflict, but could result in a nuclear confrontation, as both countries have these deadly weapons.

New Delhi reacted to the terrorist attack most gravely and has taken unprecedented steps: the 1950 Indus Waters Treaty, which regulated the distribution of water between the two countries and is vitally important for Pakistan, has been suspended. The source of the Indus River is located at an altitude of about 5,300 meters in the southwest of the Tibetan Plateau, flows most of the territory of northwestern India and blocking its flow to Pakistan causes great damage to the energy and agriculture of this country.

In turn, Pakistan decided to halt trade relations with its neighbour (the trade turnover between the two is $1.2 bn). India is expelling Pakistani citizens and some diplomatic staff. Finally, border checkpoints have been shut down and flights suspended. Pakistan also undertook retaliatory measures.

Such an alarming situation naturally raises the concerns of the United States, Russia and China. As for our country, along with the special nature of our close relations with India, we are actively developing cooperation with Pakistan. The Americans are in the same position. Beijing traditionally maintains close ties with Islamabad (by the way, China occupied the small Indian territory of Aksai Chin in Ladakh near Jammu and Kashmir in 1962). Both India and Pakistan do, of course, take into account the positions of other countries, but they refuse mediation, especially New Delhi. However, there is also no direct substantive dialogue between them, which worries the international community.

Apparently, the leaders of neighbouring states are aware of the danger of the conflict escalating into another military confrontation, fraught with serious consequences for security in the region and beyond, and understand the need to de-escalate the newest round of tension. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and the parties will abandon the use of military force. A military solution should be excluded here. Otherwise, disaster is inevitable for the region. At the same time, the chronic and intractable problem of long-standing hostility and already traditional distrust between India and Pakistan, which has been poisoning their relations for many decades, remains a serious potential source of tension in the region.

Anvar Azimov, Diplomat and Political Analyst, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Senior Researcher, Eurasian Studies Institute MGIMO, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/04/29/relations-between-india-and-pakistan-escalate/