Russia has found itself in the difficult position of Thor. The Nordic god Thor, in the Castle of Utgaard, was requested to drink up a great horn filled with mead. He drank and he drank but he could not empty the horn – it turned out that it was connected to the sea. Likewise, Putin was pushed into a fight with Russia’s sister republic of Ukraine, but he promptly discovered that the Ukraine is connected to all the armies and industries of the united West. Mind you, the Ukraine alone was quite formidable, with its 50 million inhabitants and heavy industry.

The military might of the whole Soviet Union was largely concentrated into the westernmost part of the country. Against the endless support of the NATO bloc, Russia quickly found itself in dire straits. Putin responded by using minimal force and focused on putting out small fires. Many voices in Russia called upon him to initiate a blitzkrieg, but Putin steadfastly refused. Three years later, his tactics bore success: The West began to feel the war burden. Though the united West is much bigger than Russia, and has more people, more GNP and more arms, the relentless resistance of Russia proved to be too much for them.

Especially bearing in mind the ever-expanding war in the Middle East, with Israel wanting more and more help in its endless expansion into Lebanon, Syria, Iran and beyond. As a first sign of war fatigue, the US cut back its deliveries of anti-aircraft missiles to the Ukraine, as Israel is always the first priority for philosemitic America. Soon afterwards, Europe began to feel its own rapidly-draining strength. The most belligerent country of the West, England, suffers; PM Keir Starmer is unpopular, and the politics of the British rulers annoy the Brits. Supporting the Ukraine as well as Israel was too much, even for them.

Still, the UK keeps the ball in play. Suddenly there is a new political tension, fomented by Brits and Israel, between Russia and Azerbaijan. Millions of Azeris currently dwell in Russia and occupy a prominent space in the Russian economy. On one side, Russia deported a few powerful Azeri businessmen who had grown too big for their shoes. On another side is the big and extremely wealthy Jewish community of Azerbaijan in close alliance with Israel. These Azeris sell oil to Israel.

To further complicate things, millions of Azeris live in Iran; actually, the Ayatollahs are predominantly Azeri. While native Persians prefer poetry, the 15–20 million Azeri Turks living in northern Iran are a fighting lot. Finally, Azerbaijan is an essential nexus to connect the big states of BRICS: Russia, China and Iran. Iran is particularly upset that Azerbaijan allows Israel to fly sorties via this backdoor to attack it.

And before that, there was the alleged assassination of Ebrahim Raisi, the former president of Iran. His death on the Azerbaijani border, on a helicopter returning from an event in Azerbaijan, caused Iranian hardliners to shift their support to (relatively) pro-Western president Masoud Pezeshkian. Russia, China and Iran continue to be quite upset by Azerbaijan’s political meddling, and Turkey plans to establish a big military base there – it will be NATO base, actually.

Now the slow-moving Ukrainian war is in the way of everybody.

It could be a good time for making peace in the Ukraine. There are ongoing peace talks, the reps of two countries have met twice in Istanbul, they exchanged POWs and wounded, and are prepared to meet again, probably this week. The Russian group of the Istanbul negotiations is headed by Mr Vladimir Medinsky, a native of Ukraine, a prolific writer, a professor of history and an adviser to President Putin. He was a Minister of Culture, and now leads the Writers’ Union. He has become quite popular.

People were especially impressed by his interview where he reminded listeners of the Russo-Swedish war of the 18th c. That war lasted for 23 years; Russian Tsar Peter the Great offered peace to the Swedes a few times, but each time they replied, “We shall fight to the last Swede”. In the end, the Swedes lost much more than they would have if they had agreed earlier. Russians are ready to fight as long as it takes, even 23 years. Are you? – asked Medinsky.

That is a relevant question. Russians are stayers. They can fight as long as it takes, if it is for an important cause. And the Ukraine is part and parcel of Russia, so the Russians feel. To them, it is important enough. But they are willing to compromise. Putin is willing to settle, and he would like to use the special services of peace-loving President Trump to make Zelensky agree.

The Istanbul talks were first conducted in 2022, right after the beginning of the war (under that very same Medinsky). The talks were quickly concluded and a peace treaty was initialled. It was a modest affair: the Ukraine promised to stay out of NATO, and the Russian-speaking areas (like Donbass) were to remain formally within the Ukraine, pending a public plebiscite under international control.

But this agreement (that would have saved Russia and to the West many billions) was not to be kept. Instead, British PM Mr Johnson flew into Kiev and called upon the Ukrainians to fight to the last man. Hundreds of thousands of casualties later, they might finally be able reach a settlement. Such a settlement will necessarily be less grand than both sides hoped for at the start. But it won’t be just as Zelensky wishes, and Trump understands this.

No more such nonsense as “unconditional ceasefire”. Russia wants the West out of the Ukraine. She wants to preserve the status of the Orthodox Church and of the Russian language in the Ukraine. (Practically all Ukrainians are Orthodox, and the vast majority of the Ukraine speaks Russian as their first language. This was changed by nationalists after the 2014 coup.) Russia intends to defend four districts in Eastern Ukraine, all of which are populated by Russian-speakers, all of which voted in the plebiscite to join the Russian Federation.

Russia is not demanding too much, and the Ukrainian leadership should be able to easily accept their terms. Kyiv had eight years to settle the question of Donbass and they only made things worse; if they actually wanted to keep the region they would have done something to appease the people.

Unfortunately, open war is a great attraction to war profiteers. Mr Zelensky and his friends became very rich from the Ukraine war. They are famous for stealing the billions of dollars given them to fight Russia. They make extra profits by re-selling the weapons given to them by the West; the Ukrainian leadership is exporting these armaments all over the world, even to Africa.

Biden’s Dem establishment used the Ukraine as a great laundry for their own illegal profits. We speak of many billions of dollars that landed in Ukrainian pockets on the way to US and EU pockets. Though hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died on the battlefield, thousands of Ukrainians got their hands on one hell of a lot of American money. Will they agree to terminate this Golden Rain? How much is enough? Maybe they will prefer to milk the US cow as long as it continues to produce.

Putin understands this. That’s why he called Trump directly to terminate the weapons transfer. If that will be done, the peace agreement will be possible. Trump also understands this, but he is of two minds: Continue to throw good money after bad, or shut the whole dirty machine down and be accused of losing the Ukraine War? It is basically a question of his political survival. Warlike neocons will skin Trump alive.

Zelensky claims he wants to negotiate with Putin personally. This is just an attempt to inflate his own value. When the agreement is complete, only then is it appropriate for presidents to meet and sign. Now it is too early. The war is still going on. Ukrainian politics may have become suddenly inconvenient for NATO’s global chessboard, but slow conflict suits Russians. It may be completed by peace, or by complete victory, within a year, or sooner.

In Istanbul this Sunday [July 6-Ed], there gathers a press conference under the auspices of Teory monthly magazine. It is being led by three retired military men: Admiral (Navy) Kutluk, Colonel (Air Force) Ihsan Sefa, and Editor-in-Chief Tevfik Kadan. They are united by their Ergenekon past, by their scepticism of NATO, and by their rather positive attitude toward BRICS.

They represent a growing centre of power, and what they have to say is relevant to all future peace conferences. They said they do not want NATO enter the Black Sea. The US is the biggest victor in the Ukraine war, in their view. The US wanted the war, it will end only when the US will request that, said the Turkish generals. Let us pray that the Russian-Ukrainian negotiators take full advantage of this shifting balance of power and end the bloodletting of ordinary Ukrainians to benefit the wealthy few.

An old joke tells of a couple making love on a railway track, despite a rapidly approaching train frantically blowing its whistle. Finally, the train squeals dramatically to a halt, and the engineer of the locomotive loudly expressed his annoyance. “One of us had to stop,” answers the amorous man, “and I couldn’t!” Likewise, Putin can’t stop this war by himself. First, he must restore the Ukraine back into the Russian embrace it was extracted from by Gorbachev, Banderites and the CIA. Let Trump help him in this task.

Edited by Paul Bennett

https://www.unz.com/ishamir/a-chance-for-peace/