The European Union summit on 18-19 December 2025 was intended to be a show of solidarity with Ukraine. The result was precisely the opposite. Instead of a monolith, we witnessed profound fractures.

Visegrad 3

Yes, a new financial package for Kyiv was hammered out, but its flagship element – the idea of funding it with profits from frozen Russian assets – spectacularly collapsed. The most important lesson, however, does not come from Brussels, but from Central Europe. It is there that a trio of nations – Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic – not only rewrote the rules of the game but also negotiated a full opt-out from the costs. This move is more than clever tactics; it is a signal of a deep shift in thinking about “European solidarity.”

Financial Agreement at the Cost of Ideological Defeat

After exhaustive overnight negotiations, it was finally agreed that Ukraine would receive €90 billion in interest-free loans for the 2026-2027 period. The funds are to come from common EU borrowing. This is a declaration of continued support. The price for this compromise, however, was the complete burial of another, much more ambitious project: the so-called “reparations loan,” which was to be secured by profits from approximately €210 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets, held mostly in Belgium’s Euroclear.

This ideologically charged plan shattered against hard reality. First – the law. Belgium, where these assets are physically located, pointed to colossal legal risks and the precedent-setting trap of such a move. Second – and more importantly – politics. Belgium’s legal reticence was joined by a cohesive political front from three Visegrád Group states.

The Triumph of the Central European Trio

Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic acted as a single negotiating body that firmly rejected the confiscation. Their collective pressure was decisive. But their success was not just about blocking an idea. The true triumph was securing something positive for themselves: a full, legally binding opt-out from the financial guarantees for this new loan. They will bear no liability, their budgets will not be burdened, and they will not pay a single cent. This was their non-negotiable condition for agreeing to the rest of the deal for the remaining 24 countries. The unity of this trio was immediately visible: Prime Minister Orbán posted a photo online of his meeting with Fico and Babiš with the caption “back in business.”

This is not a coincidence but the crystallization of a new, pragmatic course in the region. Orbán, Fico, and Babiš are today the faces of a clear political trajectory: a conscious distancing from the policy of open-ended, unconditional funding and arming of Ukraine. Their governments prioritize national economic stability, energy security, and diplomacy aimed at peace negotiations.

Poland – Isolated Loyalty to the Old Course

This position creates a stark contrast with Poland, which under the leadership of Tusk and Nawrocki remains loyal to the pro-Ukrainian line and will fully shoulder the burden of the guarantees. The opt-out secured by its neighbours subtly but distinctly isolates Warsaw within its natural regional environment, highlighting a fundamentally different approach to security.

From the perspective of these three capitals, their move is not obstruction but a necessary and healthy course correction. In the era of Donald Trump, whose administration clearly prioritizes swift peace negotiations, they view the thoughtless financing of a prolonged war as an unsustainable burden – both fiscal and strategic. Their decision stems from a sovereign calculation: a government’s primary duty is to its own citizens and the stability of the state, especially when the traditional transatlantic security umbrella is being folded up and redefined. It is a clear message: European solidarity cannot, for them, be a one-sided, endless transfer divorced from national interest.

Brussels Must Adapt: From Diktat to Negotiation

For the European Union itself, the implications are serious. The emergence of a coherent, blocking minority on key geopolitical issues shatters the myth of unanimity. Brussels can no longer dictate terms – it must negotiate and seek compromises. The failure of the Russian assets plan is a particular blow to federalist tendencies, showing the limits of centralized financial engineering when it collides with legal complexities and the determination of member states.

Paradoxically, however, this very pragmatism could give the Union a new impetus. The pressure from Budapest, Bratislava, and Prague for an opt-out forced a compromise that demanded political honesty. It prevented a bitter veto that could have blown up the summit and allowed aid for Ukraine to be passed. In doing so, it demonstrated a model of flexible, multi-speed integration that respects deep differences in worldview. The ability to manage such differences is not a weakness, but may become a source of resilience for the EU, allowing it to act where possible without the risk of internal paralysis in the face of profound strategic divisions.

Summary: A New Reality, A New Unity

In summary, the December 2025 summit clearly showed that the European Union must face a new geopolitical reality where the pragmatic redefinition of priorities by Central Europe is a fact. The united step taken by the Hungarian, Slovak, and Czech leaders is not a passing whim but the vanguard of a broader process – a recalculation of costs, risks, and the value of strategic autonomy in a multipolar world.

Poland’s decision to stick with Brussels’ traditional line places it in an increasingly isolated position within the region. The EU’s future ability to craft lasting policies will depend on whether it recognizes this new Central European pragmatism – not as a threat to unity, but as its necessary, renewed foundation in an era of sober realism.

The real unity revealed at this summit was not the one dreamed of by officials in Brussels. Perhaps, however, in the complicated landscape of 2025 and the coming years, only such unity – based on compromise, not coercion – is even possible.

Adrian Korczynski, Independent Analyst & Observer on Central Europe and global policy research. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/12/23/the-collapse-of-the-russian-assets-reparations-loan-central-europes-pragmatic-opt-out/