Increased focus on multilateral regional cooperation formats, including the Moscow talks, the Tehran summit, the work of the Contact Group, and engagement with neighbouring countries, offers real prospects for achieving lasting stability both in Afghanistan and in neighbouring states.

The January 2025 attack on a Chinese national in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, was significant. But two deadly attacks along the Tajik-Afghan border on November 30 and November 26 killed and injured several Chinese nationals in Tajikistan. Both attacks originated in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province. Undoubtedly, groups such as ISIS-K* are the main culprits in terrorist attacks in northern Afghanistan.

Badakhshan and provinces such as Nangarhar, Kunar, Nuristan (east), and Badakhshan, Takhar, and Kunduz (northeast) serve as the main bases for terrorist groups. The long and mountainous borders with Pakistan and Tajikistan and the diverse ethnic populations (Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek) are fertile ground for terrorist activities.

However, some sources say that the drone attack on Tajik soil was carried out by the Taliban or a network of miners associated with Taliban individuals or factions. From this perspective, there is a background of dissatisfaction in the Taliban decision-making body and security forces, or even dissatisfaction with the development of relations with Tajikistan or China in helping or preventing terrorist attacks.

From another perspective, some terrorist attacks are also related to changes in the Taliban’s unwritten agreements with Islamist groups in the north. That means the Taliban’s control capabilities over these groups have become weaker.

In another dimension, some recent attacks by terrorist groups may be related to the weakening of Taliban control. That means, given the escalation of tensions with Pakistan, the increased focus on the south, and the reduction of capabilities in the north, it is more difficult to control security and borders in the north.

Growing challenges

While armed drones, cheap smuggled technologies, and the technical progress of jihadists are helping groups, extremist actors are expanding and destabilizing countries by recruiting and inspiring jihadist networks. The lack of alternative livelihoods and economic insecurity, poverty, and unemployment in Afghanistan are leading to increased terrorism in the neighbourhood and the world.

Serious challenges, including economic pressures, a 6.5 percent decline in GDP, around 75 percent unemployment, more than 90 percent of Afghans living below the poverty line, a shift in opium production from southern to northern regions, and the increasing risk of synthetic drugs replacing traditional opiates, could provide a breeding ground for terrorism in Afghanistan. The return of more than 4.5 million Afghan refugees to the country, natural disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, food insecurity, and reduced international aid, could threaten stability.

The expulsion of refugees and the relocation of extremists and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan* (TTP) fighters and their families to northern Afghanistan could be worrisome. Despite the expulsion of thousands of Tajik and Uzbek fighters by the Taliban, internal dissension within the group, the Taliban’s inability or lack of ability to effectively suppress radical groups and criminal networks involved in the trafficking of heroin and other drugs, contribute to the emergence of terrorist attacks.

The Pashtun Taliban is certainly not capable of implementing security in the vast and often remote provinces of the north alone, providing space for militant networks. While about 90% of the Taliban’s senior and middle leadership are Pashtun, there are only three non-Pashtun members. The government’s lack of effective inclusiveness has led to protests and their absorption by opposition or extremist groups. With the risk of tight controls reduced, the Central Asian border with Afghanistan, which is more than 2,000 kilometers long, carries the risk of “sleeper terrorist cells” infiltrating.

The UN Security Council explained in its latest report that apart from the role of the Taliban’s military opposition, the threat of more than 20 terrorist groups remains. In this regard, most attacks are carried out by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the recruiting, planning, and logistical hub for ISIS-K*.

The Taliban claim to have defeated ISKP in Afghanistan, but ISKP commanders remain active and, apart from using artificial intelligence, have recruited volunteers from Central Asia. ISKP is active in Badakhshan, Takhar, and Kunduz and is the most serious threat in the UN’s  2025 report, ISIS-K*, with over 2,000 fighters and a steady stream of recruitment from disaffected factions and splinter groups.

Al-Qaeda* and its affiliates, with hundreds of members, also have bases in the east and northeast of the country, with smaller groups operating in the north and Badakhshan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan* (TTP) lives in the country and has training camps, has increased attacks by 50%, and has around 6,000 fighters.

Taliban Approach

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed in August 2025: “Foreign groups are not allowed to operate in Afghanistan, and the claims against us are propaganda.” From the Taliban’s perspective, there is no threat from Afghanistan to other countries, and drugs have been eliminated and banned in Afghanistan.

However, regarding the recent attacks on the border with Tajikistan, they announced that several suspects were targeted or arrested in the attacks against Chinese citizens. From this perspective, these attacks were planned and directed from outside Afghan territory.

Regional cooperation for stable security in Afghanistan

Although Sirajuddin Haqqani stated that he does not need guidance from others in implementing national decisions. The Taliban has also called on regional countries to abandon a security-focused approach towards Afghanistan. In fact, terrorist groups on Afghan soil pose a significant threat to regional and global security. Afghanistan is a geopolitical nexus whose instability could have wider negative effects on the region.

From the perspective of many in the region, especially in Pakistan, the Taliban’s dual relationship to terrorism, namely supporting aligned groups for geopolitical goals and suppressing the ISKP as an ideological rival, actually threatens stability.

In the meantime, greater attention to multilateral regional cooperation formulas such as the Moscow talks and the Tehran summit, the Contact Group, and the neighbourhoods can provide a realistic path to lasting stability for Afghanistan and its neighbours.

Certainly, joint efforts to counter the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan, military training programs, the provision of weapons and equipment, and strong information-sharing mechanisms to track and neutralize the movements of militants inside Afghanistan and beyond its borders are important. Certainly, an inclusive and legitimate political Afghanistan with the rule of law at home and responsible action abroad can play an important role in ensuring greater stability and security in the region.

However, imposed and interventionist approaches increase the complexity of the Afghan crisis. Also, the establishment of national and intra-Afghan negotiations, free from foreign interference, with the help of neighbours, is an effort to provide broader stability and reduce the risk of terrorism.

*Terrorist organizations banned in Russia

Samyar Rostami, ? political observer and senior researcher in international relations. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2026/01/05/terrorism-and-security-in-northern-afghanistan-and-the-regional-formula-for-cooperation/