The largest island in the world, Greenland (not green at all, rather covered by white ice), has in recent months become one of the hottest geopolitical spots and disputes in international relations. The island, which has been administratively part of the Kingdom of Denmark for two centuries, has caught the eye of the Trump administration, which claims that the island must be under direct control of the US for its national security, otherwise it will be “swallowed up” by Russia and China (Russian submarines already operate around the island). The latest statements by NATO leaders support the idea of “Russian occupation of Greenland” as the reason for the increased presence of (small and meager) NATO soldiers on the island, but in essence, this position advocates the transfer of the island under American administration.

Greenland politically belongs to Denmark, i.e., the European Union, and in a military-political sense to the NATO pact. Geographically, it belongs to the North American continent and is closest to Canada, not the USA, and far away from Denmark. However, in a purely military sense, Greenland has been under US “occupation” since the summer of 1940 (after Nazi Germany overran Denmark). In that context, the island is more tied to the American, rather than the Danish (European) administration. If, and this is in fact more or less a fait accompli, Greenland does indeed belong to the US in one form or another, it will only be a formal recognition of the real state of affairs since the time of World War II up to today.

The greatest geopolitical value of Greenland is that it controls access to the North Atlantic. The Greenland Sea is the main link between the Arctic and the western Atlantic. It is of great importance for Arctic fishing and whaling. The northern part is mostly covered with ice, and its southern part is covered with icebergs or floes.

Geographical characteristics of the island

Greenland (Grønland) is an Arctic island, the world‘s largest, located off the northeastern part of the North American continent, next to Canada. It is mostly in the Arctic Circle, with its northernmost point 708 km from the North Pole. It is about 2,650 km long from north to south, and about 1,300 km wide from east to west.

It has an area of ??2,130,800 sq km, with coastal islands of 2,175,600 sq km, and a population of almost 55,000. In contrast, ??Europe is about 10,180,000 sq km. Though politically part of the territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland has a certain degree of local autonomy.

The island has a very rugged coastline with a large number of fjords. The eastern coast, despite its great ruggedness, is practically inaccessible for the most part due to icebergs. The interior of Greenland, together with the ice sheet, forms a plateau between 2000 and 3000 meters above sea level. It is estimated that about 1,860,900 sq. km. of the island's territory is permanently covered with ice, with a thickness of between 500 and 1500 m. Only about 13% of its surface is free of ice, and in the coastal zone it is up to 150 m. wide. The highest peak is on Mount Forel, 3440 m.

The climate is of the Arctic type. The southern part of the west coast is the most favorable for life because it is reached by the warmer Atlantic current, where the average January temperature is about minus 14 degrees C, and July about plus 8 degrees C. In the interior of the island, the temperature can reach minus 50 degrees C.

From from a military-economic point of view, the seas, bays, and straits around Greenland freeze over except in its southwestern part; these waters are covered with icebergs as well as mountains broken off from glaciers which descend from the interior of the mainland into the sea. Along the northern coast, the sea is constantly under ice. There are no land communications on the island. The ports in the south of the island are of insignificant capacity, at least in military terms. Dog sledding on land and boats at sea are the only means of transport. However, in terms of air traffic, Greenland is in a very important position because the shortest flight routes from North America to the northern parts of Europe and Western Siberia pass through it.

Economy of Greenland

The current economy is very insignificant, because the main economic activity of the islanders is limited to fishing, which is not as profitable as in Iceland or Norway. It is mainly about catching cod, whale, seal, walrus, and, on the mainland, bear hunting for fur. A small number of sheep and goats are raised on the island, while vegetables and potatoes are grown sparingly in the southern coastal belt.

However, the island is rich in certain minerals. There are deposits of cryolite, copper, lead, graphite, and uranium. Greenland has the largest mines of cryolite in the world, which is used in the aluminum industry. Cryolite ore is mined in the southwestern part of the island and exported. Graphite and coal are mined in smaller quantities, while lead and zinc ores have been exploited since 1956.

It is claimed that there are large quantities of oil and especially natural gas in the depths of the island. In this context, Greenland can be considered a part of the Arctic that has been proven to lie on huge reserves of natural gas and probably other energy sources, which would be the main reason for the international race for the largest island in the world.

Population and Constitution

The indigenous population is of Eskimo origin, settled mainly in its southern part along the coast. There are a small number of ethnic Danes as well as US citizens who are stationed at US military bases, especially at the large Tula naval and air base on the northwestern coast. The capital, Gothop/Nuuk, had a population of almost 4,000 in 1965, but today has almost 20,000.

According to the Constitution of the Kingdom of Denmark (June 5, 1953), Greenland is an integral province of the Kingdom with special autonomy (same as the Faroe Islands) since 2009. Greenland has its own flag and local administration. The island sends two representatives to the Kingdom‘s Parliament. Executive power is exercised by the Landsråt (Country Council), which consists of 13 members elected from among the inhabitants of Greenland. The President of the Landsråt is appointed by the Prime Minister of Denmark.

Short history of the island

The Vikings discovered Greenland in 982; the southwestern coast was settled by the Normans (Vikings), but their settlements later disappeared. New settlements from Europe began at the end of the 18th century. The settlements in southern Greenland came under the rule of the Kingdom of Denmark in 1814, and the entire island was annexed to it in 1921. When the Germans occupied Denmark on April 9, 1940, by decision of US President F.D. Roosevelt, military units of the US Army landed on Greenland, where they remained throughout World War II, and to this day.

Denmark is one of the 12 founding members of the NATO pact in 1949, as is the US. The United States has built the Thule air and naval base in the northwestern part of the island and the Narssarssuaq air base in the southern part. By a mutual defense agreement with the Kingdom on April 27, 1951, the United States was granted the right to use these two military bases, which also serve as air traffic. East of Thule, the US built a nuclear power plant along with a long-range air intelligence radar system linked to the northern parts of Canada. Thus, the capital military-economic infrastructure is built by the US, not Denmark.

The Future of the “Greenland Question”

Realistically, the US will certainly take over Greenland from Denmark, the only question is whether by July 4 or November 3, 2026 (US elections). There are two practical scenarios for this takeover:

1) By using soft power, i.e., bribery, purchases, political blackmail, and/or economic sanctions;

2) By using hard power, i.e., direct military intervention or occupation and annexation of the island under the excuse of security or whatever geopolitical reasons.

The first option involves pro-American propaganda among the inhabitants, who number as many as the inhabitants of one major street in New York. They will be promised a better future and life within the United States, especially a higher standard of living. The Americans will promise large investments in the exploitation of mineral and other natural resources, from which the inhabitants will directly benefit, which was not the case while Greenland was under Danish rule, because the Danish authorities did not invest much in the economy of Greenland.

The island is one of the poorest regions of the European Union in terms of infrastructure, economy, and living standards. It should not be very difficult for the Trump administration to indoctrinate the majority of the inhabitants, especially as there is a solid pro-American core in Greenland. After its propaganda work, the soft power would end with a general vote on the island for its independence, which would be declared under the supervision of the “international (pro-American) community”. Thus, the transition from Denmark to the US administration would take place according to formally “democratic” principles. The amount of money that Denmark would receive from the US for this “democratic” transition will probably never be known.

Trump has already threatened European countries that oppose his policy of annexing Greenland with the introduction of tariffs of 10% to begin with, and if the countries in question do not collaborate, successively higher tariffs on the export of their goods to the US market. Such blackmail is an extreme variant of the application of soft power.

The second scenario involves the direct use of military force in Greenland, which would be formally justified for security reasons. For the US to “occupy” the island, they would need one destroyer and one battalion of Marines, just in case. There are already two US military bases on the island. In the event of an American landing, the “international community” would not take any concrete action, and protests would be reduced to a boring repetition of the violation of “international law”. Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states will probably support the occupation, while the EU and NATO bureaucracy will try to cover up the matter as soon as possible in order to consolidate members against their main enemy – “aggressor” Russia.

The current deployment of EU/NATO troops to Greenland is an unproductive demonstration of “force” against the “Russian and Chinese occupation” of the island, not a “force” to contain the US real occupation of Greenland. Threats by Washington and Paris to leave NATO are diplomatic bickering, empty empty rhetoric aimed at scoring political points on both sides, primarily against Russia.

The price of transfer (?) and possible consequences in international relations

According to estimates by some Western experts, and as reported by the NBC TV Network, the value of Greenland today is up to $ 700 billion, including its geopolitical position. The US interest to buy the island for cash dates back to 1946, when US President Harry Truman offered $100 million in gold for it. This information was not public until 1991. For comparison, in 1999, the CIA estimated the total value of Kosovo (southern province of Serbia) at $500 billion.

From a military and geopolitical perspective, the transfer of Greenland to the US will not change anything as the island has been de facto under US control since June 1940, and the complete transfer from Danish to US hands would be an insignificant operation within the framework of the NATO pact.

The only question is, who is next in line to be occupied for the sake of US national security? There are many candidates: Colombia, Mexico, Iran, etc. For now, the Trump administration is promoting the implementation of the “Monroe Doctrine” from 1823 – “America, for the Americans”, i.e., that the entire Western (American) Hemisphere falls under US rule.

If this regional project of American imperialism is realized, it is only a matter of days before the global MAGA project moves to the Eastern Hemisphere, where it has a larger number of solid military-political strongholds (especially around Iran).

Finally, in this whole policy of transferring Greenland to the US, the real winners will be China and Russia, and the only loser, along with Denmark, will be the European Union. The diplomatic moves of Beijing and Moscow on this issue clearly indicate that they are de facto staying on the sidelines, with the US award to Russia likely being a solution to the “Ukrainian Question” according to the Russian will, while the award to China remains a secret, as in many other similar cases so far.