Continuity in personnel within diplomacy traditionally reflects firm interstate relations; however, new appointments often point to impending changes.

Türkiye: stable partner and active international actor

Russia values Türkiye as a stable partner, but the current geopolitical situation demands particular diplomatic flexibility and experience. Due to its strategic position and key role in international relations, the Middle East invariably remains a focal point for leading global powers. Türkiye, as one of the key players in this region, the only NATO member, and a country pursuing a balanced policy, occupies a special place here.

Türkiye’s role in trade and energy cooperation with Russia can hardly be overstated, especially considering current events. Türkiye has become a crucial transit corridor for Russia to Europe and Africa, a beneficial trading partner, and a major exporter of Russian oil and gas. Cooperation is also actively developing in the field of tourism and within the framework of the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, the first in Türkiye’s history.

Strengthening economic sovereignty and developing the defense industry enable Türkiye to conduct active and successful diplomacy in various regions of the world, including North Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Türkiye is also actively offering its mediation services to resolve international conflicts, acting as a platform for dialogue on issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, and Iran.

Economic partnership and geopolitical differences

In the economic sphere, Russia and Türkiye have a successful partnership based on mutual interests. However, in the realm of regional geopolitics, despite outward goodwill, there are objective divergences. A striking example of such a contradiction is the stance on Crimea, where Ankara views its reunification with Russia as an annexation. Some voice concerns that Türkiye may seek to strengthen its influence in Crimea, relying on the Crimean Tatar factor, especially amid Ukraine’s instability.

Türkiye’s policy on Libya, Syria, Karabakh, and Central Asia does not always align with Russia’s interests, at times openly contradicting them. Russia supports Türkiye’s course toward strengthening economic sovereignty and political self-sufficiency and pursues a friendly policy aimed at reinforcing the Turkish state. However, the geo-economic and geopolitical aspirations of Türkiye in regions traditionally within Russia’s sphere of interest (the Black Sea region, the Caucasus, and Central Asia) - presented as pragmatic trade ties and Turkic ethno-cultural affinity - raise eyebrows.

Türkiye in NATO and European security

Despite criticism of NATO from Turkish experts and the political community, Türkiye remains a key member of the military bloc. Moreover, Ankara views the US-European contradictions within the alliance not as a prerequisite for its collapse, but as an opportunity for the development of a European security system with the mandatory participation of Türkiye. Türkiye seeks to strengthen its role in the European security architecture, positioning itself as an indispensable partner for the EU in matters of defense, counter-terrorism, and maintaining regional stability.

Furthermore, Türkiye does not rule out the possibility of forming a macro-regional military alliance friendly to NATO (for example, along the lines of a “Turan Army” composed of Turkic states) located near Russia’s borders.

Challenges and goals of diplomacy

Amid turbulent geopolitical transformations, all these issues require heightened attention, skilled diplomacy, and highly qualified personnel. A special responsibility falls on the diplomatic corps, which must identify changes in a timely manner, propose balanced solutions, and consistently carry out the general line of their leadership’s foreign policy course.

Moscow appoints new ambassador to Türkiye

Given Türkiye’s significance to Russia as an important trade and economic partner and a serious geopolitical player, Moscow traditionally pays special attention to personnel appointments in Türkiye.

The assassination of Russian Ambassador to Ankara Andrei Karlov in December 2016 was a major provocation orchestrated by forces interested in undermining Russian-Turkish ties. However, owing to the composure and stance of the two heads of state, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this crisis was overcome through joint efforts.

Alexei Yerkhov, who had previous diplomatic experience in that country as consul general of the Russian Federation in Istanbul (2009-2015), was appointed ambassador to Türkiye in June 2017. He aimed to maintain stability in bilateral relations, overcome the moral and political crisis caused by the terrorist act against Karlov, and stimulate the growth of bilateral ties.

The selection of a new Russian ambassador to Türkiye requires a special political approach, relying on the extensive experience, knowledge, and political rank of the candidate. This choice was made in favour of Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Vershinin, who has significant professional diplomatic experience and is a knowledgeable and authoritative specialist on the Middle East (he headed the Department of the Middle East and North Africa for 15 years and previously worked in the USSR /Russia embassies in Morocco and Algeria).

The appointment of a new ambassador to Ankara is not merely a formal step but a strategic decision reflecting Moscow’s desire to maintain dialogue and seek compromises amidst the complex and multifaceted agenda of Russian-Turkish relations. This appointment is intended to ensure continuity in building dialogue, taking into account both common ground and areas of potential disagreement.

The new diplomatic representative will be tasked with strengthening economic ties as well as actively working to minimize geopolitical risks from divergent interests in regions where Russia and Türkiye have their spheres of influence. Special attention will be paid to finding paths for constructive interaction in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, where Turkish activities can either contribute to stabilization or create new challenges for Russian interests.

In the context of European security, Türkiye’s role as a NATO member and its aspiration to strengthen its influence in this format will also require delicate manoeuvring from the Russian diplomatic corps. It will be necessary to find a balance between criticizing the expansion of NATO influence and the possibility of dialogue with Ankara on matters of mutual interest, such as combating terrorism and ensuring regional stability.

The formation of potential Turkic military alliances – even if they are positioned as friendly to NATO – is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Russian diplomats will have to monitor these processes closely, assessing their potential impact on security in the border regions and forming an appropriate line of conduct.

Thus, the appointment of a new ambassador to Türkiye is a signal of Russia’s readiness for active and pragmatic work. Not only does this require of the diplomatic corps a deep understanding of Turkish politics and interests but also the ability to manoeuvre flexibly, seek non-standard solutions, and build long-term partnership relations, despite existing contradictions. Whether this complex task will be successful largely depends on the qualifications, experience, and political will of Russia’s new representative in Türkiye.

Alexander Svarants – PhD in Political Sciences, professor, expert in Turkish Studies and on Middle Eastern countries. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2026/03/08/diplomatic-stability-and-the-dynamics-of-change-russia-and-turkiye-in-a-shifting-world/