A Collective Responsibility

I would like to share some reflections on “Freedom of Navigation and Extended Indian Ocean Governance in Transforming Global Geopolitics” at a time when the global system is being reshaped, power competition is intensifying, and in this process, freedom and security of navigation are becoming increasingly fragile.

The Indian Ocean is not merely a geographical area; it is a central geopolitical arena where multi-layered dynamics such as energy security, global trade, supply chains, climate change, and security architecture intersect. Therefore, the governance of this region necessitates a multi-actor and collective responsibility approach that goes beyond classical nation-state reflexes.

In this context, the concept of the “Extended Indian Ocean Geopolitics” is gaining increasing importance. This refers to an interconnected security and trade ecosystem extending from the Strait of Gibraltar to the Strait of Malacca. Freedom and security of navigation constitute one of the most critical and indispensable elements of this ecosystem.

The prominence of the Indian Ocean on the global agenda in recent years can be attributed to several factors, including the expansion of BRICS, the restructuring of supply chains, energy crises, the search for alternative trade routes, and the emergence of new security formations such as QUAD. Examples like Myanmar and Bangladesh demonstrate that the struggle for power in the region is not new, but has been ongoing and deepening over time.

Rising regional tensions in recent times, along with the increasing risk of conflict among major powers, have placed maritime security at the center of the global agenda. At this stage, we observe that problems related to supply chains have increasingly shifted from land routes to maritime domains. A vast geography extending to the Mediterranean via the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez route has effectively become an integrated and critical zone in terms of the security of navigation.

At this point, it is no longer possible to consider the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean as independent from one another. Critical chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar strategically link these two regions. In other words, while the Indian Ocean constitutes the core of this geopolitical line, the Mediterranean - along with the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar - forms the existential zone and critical extension of this central geopolitics.

A new phase has been reached in the process of regional design and control that began with the Arab Spring. Developments, particularly in the Gulf region, indicate that certain countries may directly or indirectly become part of conflict dynamics. This situation increases the risk of the region transforming into a major arena of global power competition.

The issue is no longer limited to energy resources, particularly oil. Rather, it has evolved into a matter of securing and controlling ports and strategic straits. This evolution brings with it the potential for a multidimensional global crisis. The recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz stands as a concrete example of this reality. The process has become highly fragile for all parties and, consequently, for the international system as a whole.

The growing lack of trust in the established institutions and norms of the international system further deepens this fragility and uncertainty, turning it into a profound security issue not only among rival great powers but also among allies. The crisis of confidence between the United States, Europe, and the Gulf countries, as well as ongoing debates within NATO, are among the clearest indicators of this trend. While this situation accelerates the search for a new security architecture, it also calls into question the effectiveness, direction, and even the future viability of existing alliance structures.

The perception of a “power vacuum,” which became evident with the Russia–Ukraine War and has seemingly peaked with the US–Israel–Iran conflict, plays an accelerating role in this process. How this vacuum will be filled has emerged as one of the most critical questions for the near future - not only for the “Extended Indian Ocean Geopolitics” but for the entire world.

Undoubtedly, in answering this question regarding the “Extended Indian Ocean Geopolitics,” the policies of regional actors - particularly China, India, and Japan - alongside traditional Western powers, will be decisive.

In addition, countries in the region - especially Iran - as well as the broader international community, have begun to draw significant lessons from this conflict. Therefore, not only the war itself but also the post-war process and the uncertainties surrounding it pose serious challenges for the future of freedom of navigation. These debates undoubtedly have both direct and indirect implications for maritime security.

All these developments render the concept of “Extended Indian Ocean Governance” inevitable. This approach requires the establishment of a more inclusive and cooperative framework based on shared threat perceptions and common interests among regional states.

However, there are several significant obstacles to this process, including sovereignty sensitivities, regional mistrust, institutional fragmentation, great power competition, and capacity asymmetries.

To overcome these challenges, a multi-layered strategy is required:

·         First, a gradual integrated approach can be adopted. Cooperation initiated in technical areas can progressively expand into security and economic domains.

·         Second, confidence-building measures are of critical importance. Joint exercises, transparent data-sharing, and effective communication mechanisms can form the foundation of this process.

·         Third, ensuring regional ownership is essential. Placing regional countries at the center of governance mechanisms is critical for sustainability.

·         Finally, flexible and issue-based multilateral cooperation should be encouraged instead of rigid alliance structures.

From an institutional perspective, a multi-layered model can be envisaged:

·         An “Extended Indian Ocean Governance Council” could be established as a consultative platform capable of producing guiding, though non-binding, decisions.

·         A “Maritime Security Coordination Center” could be created to enhance joint operations and crisis management capacity.

·         Platforms promoting cooperation in the blue economy could be developed, and sustainable development projects supported.

·         Scientific advisory mechanisms could contribute to policymaking processes in the fields of environment, climate, and marine sciences.

·         Within the framework of public diplomacy and Track-2 diplomacy, an “Extended Indian Ocean Think Tanks Alliance” could be established.

In conclusion, the future of the Indian Ocean is not only the responsibility of littoral states but also of a broader international community with economic and strategic ties to the region. Thus, the conceptualization of the “Extended Indian Ocean,” which includes the Mediterranean, is of particular importance. Freedom of navigation is no longer merely a maritime issue; it is a strategic necessity for the continuity of global trade, energy security, and the stability of the international system.

Sharing this responsibility through a collective approach will contribute both to regional stability and to the construction of a more balanced and sustainable global order. In other words, such burden-sharing is critical not only for the security of global trade but also for managing great power competition within a more predictable framework. The pursuit of harmony between politics, strategy, and instruments - more concretely, the logic of realpolitik - renders this imperative unavoidable. Collective action is no longer a choice but a necessity for building a more balanced, sustainable, and stable order.

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL is President of ANKASAM / Türkiye; based on the speech delivered at the 9th edition of the Indian Ocean Conference in Mauritius (10-12 April 2026)