Iran War - Global Food Insecurity in the offing?
by Naagesh Padmanaban on 03 Jul 2026 0 Comment

The US-Israel war against Iran has officially ended with a deal signed in Switzerland. However, reports suggest that Israel is not going along and has publicly expressed its opposition which makes the deal tenuous. However fragile the deal itself may be, it has come as a welcome relief for all, particularly the rest of world who have been subjected to unprecedented economic shocks since the war erupted.

 

The impact of the war has been unevenly felt across the world. Poorer nations have borne the brunt of the war – paying higher prices – for petrol, LNG, food, transportation, fertilizers, travel etc. But what is unspoken is the looming food insecurity that could nullify the achievements of decades of poverty eradication programs around the globe.

 

The United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), based out of Rome, had pointed out in a study earlier that the Iran war could have devastating consequences on global food security, particularly the poorer countries. Per its analysis, over 45 million people could face acute food shortage in the coming days because of high oil prices.

 

While the findings of the study itself were not a surprise, the numbers - the scale and widespread impact - were shocking, to say the least. In a follow up to its study in June 2026, the FAO focused on impact of food shortage in three countries – Somalia, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. It found that “an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia, 1.3 million in Sri Lanka and 2.3 million in Afghanistan are struggling to meet basic food needs and, in some cases, being pushed into acute hunger due to the crisis.”

 

As mentioned, the study results surprise no one. But the extent of economic damage of this war of choice is yet to be assessed fully. The full scope of damages suffered by Iran to its military and non-military infrastructure - schools, hospitals, road & railways and other public utilities may never be known.

 

Similarly, the damage suffered by Israel to its economy is equally immense. On the other hand, the US too has suffered colossal damage to its military assets including aircrafts, ships and military bases in the Middle East just to mention a few. The full extent of the damage will take long time to become public, if at all it becomes public.

 

Losses suffered by warring parties are understandable and are to be expected. But this ‘war of choice’ has created extensive collateral damage to the global economy – to countries that had nothing to do with the war.  What did the people of Somalia, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, as pointed out in the FAO report, have to do with the war?

 

In an extremely interconnected world, economies rely on multiple trading partners, and smooth passage of commercial cargo are taken for granted. Disruptions on such a scale and duration were never part of any governmental or strategic calculations.

 

Media reports circulating widely have indicated that the US may have agreed to provide Iran $300 billion in assisting its reconstruction. This is a welcome move and hailed by global leaders. But the larger question that no one seems to be raising is who will compensate or pay reparations for massive economic losses, particularly food insecurity suffered by so many countries around the globe who had nothing to do with the war? Specifically, will the US provide financial support for reconstruction and wiping out of starvation caused by the Iran war? Or will countries that have not been greatly impacted by the war together with the US fund a global food security program for the poorer countries?

 

These are real questions that need to be addressed by the media and governments. In my humble view, the Iran war has not ended just by signing a deal between the warring countries. There is a larger moral responsibility we all owe the starving millions who had nothing to do with the war but are suffering the most acute and inhuman consequences of it.

 

It must also be noted that millions of Americans have been impacted by the war. High gas prices at the pump and grocery stores continue to squeeze them. High prices have pinched the pockets of not only lower income segments but also significant high-income groups. For instance, continuing layoffs in high paying jobs in tech and other sectors has created new islands of hardships in the US.

 

The US economy is facing strong headwinds including rising inflation, higher interest rates and across the board layoffs. The economic fallouts of Iran war is a new unwanted burden that most American are now forced to recon with.

 

With such widespread economic impact, the million-dollar question is, was the war with Iran worth it? Data from international organizations, like the FAO referred to earlier, point to the most obvious fact – a diplomatic or non-war resolution of the Iran crisis would certainly have mitigated the food insecurity poorer nation face today.

 

Having said that, much of the world can now only hope that the peace deal with Iran holds. 

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