The strategic partnership between Indonesia and Belarus is an example of the successful formation and implementation of alternative models of cooperation and development in the context of the hegemony of great powers.

In today’s polarized geopolitical landscape, Indonesia’s dependence on traditional partners such as the US, China, and the EU creates structural vulnerabilities that constrain its strategic autonomy. A strategic partnership with Belarus offers an alternative path – a bridge to the Eurasian region that has so far been on the periphery of Indonesia’s trade map. Using Dependency Theory and multilateralism as analytical frameworks, this paper argues that the relationship is a strategic effort to expand Indonesia’s policy space, diversify trade and technology sources, and break free from hegemonic constraints.

Dependency and Multilateralism

Dependency Theory, developed by thinkers such as Andre Gunder Frank and Theotonio dos Santos, argues that peripheral countries (known as the Global South) exist in a structurally unequal relationship with central countries (known as the Global North). This dependency manifests itself in flows of capital, technology, and markets that favour developed countries while marginalizing developing ones. In the Indonesian context, dependence on a handful of major trading partners creates what is known as structural vulnerability, susceptibility to external shocks, and geopolitical pressures.

Meanwhile, the multilateralist perspective offers a solution through the formation of inclusive and non-hegemonic alliances and cooperation frameworks. Global multilateralism allows countries to continue building and strengthening institutions and norms that moderate great power competition, creating space for middle-income countries like Indonesia to expand their strategic options. The Indonesia-Belarus partnership, framed within multilateral architecture such as the Indonesia-Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Belarus’s aspiration to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), is a manifestation of these efforts.

Indonesia’s Structural Vulnerability and the Rationality of Alternative Paths

Indonesia’s dependence on certain trading partners has long been a concern. Indonesian exports are still dominated by raw commodities and semi-finished products, while imports of technology and capital goods rely on developed countries. This situation places Indonesia in a vulnerable position during global economic turmoil or when major trading partners implement protectionist policies. A partnership with Belarus offers much-needed diversification, not only in terms of markets but also in terms of technology sources.

Belarus, as an Eastern European country with a legacy of Soviet-era heavy industry, offers expertise in areas relevant to Indonesia’s industrialization agenda: heavy equipment, agricultural machinery, potash fertilisers, and defence technology. Belarus’s offer to transfer advanced technology and train thousands of Indonesian workers at its manufacturing facilities marks a shift from conventional trade relations to a more equal partnership. The author argues that, within the framework of Dependency Theory, this is an effort to break the chain of technological dependency that has made Indonesia merely a market for products from developed countries.

Belarus as a Bridge to the Eurasian Market

Belarus’ role as a bridge to the Eurasian region is the most strategic aspect of this relationship. Therefore, as an active member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) alongside Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, Belarus provides access to a market with a population of approximately half a billion. The signing of the Indonesia-EAEU Free Trade Agreement in December 2025 marked a historic milestone, opening preferential access for Indonesian products to 90.5 percent of the total EAEU tariff.

Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso called this agreement a golden bridge that will eventually connect Indonesia and Eurasia. This is crucial, given the ongoing need to open new export markets for Indonesian manufactured products, source new investment, and reduce dependence on traditional markets. Moreover, through the lens of multilateralism, this agreement demonstrates how countries can build an architecture of economic cooperation that transcends the dominance of major power blocs, creating room for developing countries to continue to determine the direction of their national economic policies.

Beyond the economic dimension, Indonesia’s strategic relationship with Belarus continues to be strengthened by significant shared political views. Belarus, like Indonesia, has expressed its commitment to peace, security, respect for sovereignty, and the principle of non-intervention - values ??that align substantially with the principles of the Bandung Asia-Africa Conference. This shared perspective creates a foundation of trust that enables cooperation in various fields without political pressure from major powers.

The Belarusian Parliament explicitly stated that Indonesia is a strategic partner and that Belarus is committed to the Bandung principles. In Belarus’s efforts to accede to the TAC as a gateway to ASEAN, Indonesia’s support, as a founding member of ASEAN, is crucial. This reflects the pattern of mutual reciprocity that characterizes true multilateralism, where both countries support each other in international forums without one party dominating the other.

Implementation and Future Challenges

The launch of the Roadmap for Strengthening Indonesia-Belarus Cooperation 2026–2030 during President Lukashenko’s state visit to Indonesia in July 2026 marked the two countries’ commitment to implementing measurable cooperation. This roadmap covers the development of various strategic sectors: modern agriculture, industry, trade, food security, science and technology, and human resource development.

The Indonesian government targets an increase in bilateral trade from US$221 million to US$500 million in the near future. Jakarta’s optimism is based on the implementation of the I-EAEU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and various previously signed business-to-business agreements totalling over IDR 7 trillion. Cooperation in electric vehicles, semiconductors, and potash fertiliser supply is also considered strategic sectors.

However, implementation challenges remain. Indonesia’s experience with various bilateral partnerships shows that there is often a gap between the signing of memoranda of understanding and the actual implementation of projects. Technology transfer and industrial localization schemes require regulatory alignment, investment incentives, and the readiness of supporting infrastructure. The success of this roadmap will essentially depend heavily on the implementation monitoring mechanisms at the technical ministry level of both countries.

Summing up

The Indonesia-Belarus strategic partnership is a particular example of how countries in the Global South can forge alternative paths amidst the dominance of great power hegemony. Through the lens of Dependency Theory, this relationship is understood as Indonesia’s effort to reduce the structural vulnerabilities created by dependence on traditional partners by diversifying its technological and market sources. From a multilateral perspective, this partnership demonstrates how inclusive cooperation architectures, such as the I-EAEU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the TAC, can create space for middle-income countries to continue expanding their strategic options without being subject to pressure from a particular economic power bloc.

Belarus, with its position as a member of the EAEU and its ongoing commitment to the Bandung Principles, provides a bridge connecting Indonesia to the Eurasian region, a region that has historically been on the fringes of Indonesia’s trade map but holds enormous potential. The successful implementation of the 2026-2030 Roadmap will test the commitment of both countries to consistently transform this strategic relationship from mere discourse on paper to a reality that delivers tangible benefits for both nation-states.

Hendra Manurung is currently Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Department of Defence Diplomacy, Faculty of Defence Strategy, Republic of Indonesia Defence University. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2026/07/17/alternative-paths-amid-western-hegemony-why-indonesia-needs-belaruss-eurasian-bridge/