The American-Israeli aggression against Iran has significantly altered the global balance of power.

The economic damage inflicted by these military operations is immense, and its effects are still being felt on world markets; eliminating the repercussions of the damage may take months or even years. Freedom of navigation along one of the world’s most vital waterways is under threat – this concerns not only the Strait of Hormuz, as the Houthis have also pledged to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to commercial shipping.

According to a forecast just published by the International Energy Agency, the region plays a decisive role in global supply chains for critical materials, particularly aluminium, sulphur and helium. The Middle East accounts for about 8 per cent of primary aluminium and a quarter of the world’s sulphur, which underlines its strategic importance for industries such as fertiliser and semiconductor production, as well as the aerospace and defence sectors.

The head of the International Energy Agency has warned on several occasions that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy security.

During his election campaign, President Trump promised to end wars, not to start them, and never to become embroiled in an endless war, especially in the Middle East. Today, however, he risks provoking, in the words of his critics, a new ‘forever war’ involving America. The British Economist emphasised that the US President has no good options for resolving the confrontation in the Persian Gulf - D. Trump is thoroughly trapped: although the White House incumbent has offered Tehran a generous deal - in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and renouncing any ambitions regarding an atomic bomb, with the prospect of receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and investment in an economy devastated by sanctions and war - for Iran, money alone is not enough; the current hardliners have their own plans.

The British weekly is echoed by the American New York Times: on 16 July, it wrote that Trump is on the brink of despair, and by Egypt’s Al Ahram, which claims that Trump is in a state of bewilderment and does not know how to extricate himself from the extremely difficult situation that has developed. In recent days, emphasis has been placed on the ‘Save America’ Act - which provides for $73 billion in military funding (as a result of military action against Iran, the Pentagon budget has a hole of nearly $100 billion), as well as $10 billion for enforcing new stringent voting restrictions (the White House is thus attempting, through legislation, to ensure that voting is permitted only with photo identification, since many Democrats voted by mail).

However, some Senate Republicans continue to state that this bill does not have sufficient support to be passed. Notably, US Secretary of State M. Rubio complained that Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as a lever of pressure and called on other countries to step up efforts to protect global shipping.

Trump Casts About for a Way Out of His Impasse

The entire region has turned into a cluster of conflictual situations, exacerbating differences between former allies. Israel’s expansionist actions have provoked a wave of resistance in response. Ultimately, Bloomberg reported on 14 July 2026, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated: the region is fractured, violence has intensified, freedom of navigation has been permanently disrupted, and the prospects for a return to any semblance of stability remain bleak.

Even this American outlet believes that today Iran holds the upper hand in negotiations with the United States over a durable peace agreement - a result that was practically unthinkable at the start of the war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, after oil and gas prices have surged, paralysing supplies of everything from fertilisers to consumer goods.

Iran intends to introduce a system of tolls for the strait, and Trump is also testing this approach, having announced a possible 20 per cent levy on the value of cargo. The White House incumbent, having encountered serious resistance from powerful freight companies, hastened to abandon his idea.

Trump is finding it increasingly difficult to find a way out of the current situation - he can no longer simply declare victory over Iran yet again. In recent days, he has spoken more and more about how America has won as a result of wars - it is no accident that he recently renamed the Department of Defense as the Ministry of War.

Hints are appearing in the Arab press that American partners are increasingly saying that the Gulf states should pay Washington for their own security - in this regard, mention is made of threats by the Yemeni Houthis not merely to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but, in case of aggressive actions against Iran, to attack Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.

Within the United States per se, Trump’s opponents are stepping up their criticism of his political course. The New York Times published an article by John Finer, who held the post of Deputy National Security Adviser under the Biden administration, in which he argues that the process of estrangement from the United States is gaining momentum - the world is severing its ties with America: Trump’s political zigzags come at too high a cost.

At present, some Russian publications are advancing the idea that President Trump, in order to somehow redeem his failed initiatives towards Iran, should focus on a constructive search for a settlement to the Ukrainian conflict. It is notable that, returning on 8 July from the NATO summit in Ankara, the White House incumbent once again mused on his plane about how he had ended eight wars but still had not received the Nobel Peace Prize.

All this is taking place amidst a worsening domestic political situation in the United States and a deepening rift in American society. The well-known commentator Tucker Carlson recently warned of a high probability of a social explosion in the US owing to a decline in the quality of life and the authorities’ indifference to citizens’ problems.

Tucker Carlson was one of Trump’s prominent allies during his election campaign and during the first year after his return to the White House; however, the US and Israeli war with Iran marked a decisive rift between the two. Carlson now asserts that Trump has abandoned his ‘America First’ programme and has allowed Israel to determine US foreign policy.

The American journalist concludes that the current decline is accelerating a collapse, which will be followed by a reboot of the system, and he expresses hope that this process will not be drastic; nevertheless, in his view, proceeding with the current course will inevitably lead to revolution.

Veniamin Popov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, PhD in History. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2026/07/24/trump-has-cornered-himself-with-war-against-iran/