Indonesia’s defense diplomacy under President Prabowo Subianto (2024-2029) has entered a new phase marked by intensified relations with Eastern European countries. While Indonesia’s primary focus has previously been on the Asia-Pacific region and traditional partners like the United States (US), recent geopolitical dynamics are shifting, pushing Indonesia to further expand its reach and diversify its strategic partners globally.

Eastern Europe, often viewed as a transitional region between Europe and Asia, has now become a crucial arena for Indonesian defense diplomacy, driven by the need to modernize domestic defense equipment, the desire to reduce dependence on a single supply source, and the need to respond to the changing global security landscape.

Dynamics and Drivers Behind the Threat Approach to the External Security Environment

This strategic shift clearly did not occur in a vacuum. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly following the conflict in Ukraine, and the shift in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, have created a more uncertain and fragmented security environment. In this context, Indonesia, like many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, feels the need to hedge against risks by consistently building broader defense relationships and becoming less reliant on a single major power.

The purchase of two Thaon-class frigates from Italy, valued at approximately €1.2 billion, is one of the clearest demonstrations of this new strategy. This rapid agreement demonstrates a shift in priorities in Indonesia’s defense equipment procurement policy. While previously the emphasis had been on technology transfer and local production, this case demonstrates that urgent tactical military operational needs and speed can override long-term defense industrialization considerations. This indicates a national leadership perception of increasing security risks that require a swift response.

Maintaining Sustainable Partnerships: From France to Belarus

Indonesia’s defense diplomacy in Europe currently focuses on diversifying strategic defense equipment, technology transfer, and strengthening flexible multipolar security partnerships amid global geopolitical tensions. Through its independent and active foreign policy, Indonesian government is aggressively engaging with Western, Central, and Eastern European countries to support the independence of its national defense industry.

Indonesia’s defense diplomacy activities in Europe have demonstrated a broad spectrum, encompassing countries with diverse political and security backgrounds, from NATO members to close allies of Russia.

First, France and Italy: Western Strategic Partnership. French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Indonesia in May 2025 marked the strengthening of relations between the two countries, including the signing of a Letter of Intent (LoI) on defense for strategic defense equipment. France has become a key partner with an US$8 billion purchase agreement for 42 Rafale fighter jets. In addition to Italy, agreements with the UK on the Arrowhead 140 frigate project and other European companies demonstrate that Indonesia views Europe as a source of advanced defense technology willing to provide greater access and flexibility than the United States.

Second, Poland and Bulgaria: Gateways to the Eastern European Region. Relations with Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union (EU), were strengthened through dialogues on various fronts, including defense, held on the sidelines of the EU-Indo-Pacific Forum in Brussels in November 2025. Meanwhile, Bulgaria is seen as a potential gateway for Indonesian products to enter Eastern Europe, while collaboration in defense and cybersecurity was also discussed. Engagement with these countries signals that Indonesia is not only focused on being a great power but also building a broader and more multi-layered network of partnerships in the region.

Third, Russia, Belarus, and Bosnia: Maintaining Balance. Amidst increasing cooperation with Western countries, Indonesia is also actively nurturing its defense relations with countries with different geopolitical positions. Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin received a visit from a Russian delegation in June 2025 to discuss expanding defense collaboration, demonstrating the close strategic relationship. One of the implementations of the strategy to maintain Indonesia’s foreign and defense policy instruments in the Asia Pacific, in order to pursue interests and protect national sovereignty, is through strengthening defense cooperation with Russia. The Defense Minister’s official visit to Belarus in July 2025 to discuss bilateral military cooperation, and the reception of the Indonesian Defense Attaché accredited to Montenegro by the Montenegrin Defense Minister reinforces the image that Indonesia is conducting pragmatic and multipolar defense diplomacy, which seeks to maintain good relations with all related parties.

Trust-Building Strategy

Indonesia’s defense diplomacy in the region extends beyond defense equipment procurement contracts. The Military Attaché Tour organized by the Indonesian National Armed Forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia) in September 2025 served as a crucial tool for building trust and strengthening ties with military officers from 15 countries, including those from Europe. This strategy, which includes officer exchanges and joint exercises, aims to enhance regional stability, strengthen military cooperation, and establish effective communication channels. This reflects Indonesia’s non-coercive and long-term approach to defense diplomacy.

Indonesia’s defense diplomacy in Eastern Europe from 2025 to 2026 demonstrates a clear pattern, which is that Indonesia is systematically building a multi-layered and complementary network of defense partnerships to achieve its goals of modernization and geopolitical risk reduction. This is a conscious and planned strategy, not an incidental response.

This shift can be understood within the framework of the concept of bandwagoning. In an increasingly uncertain international environment and declining credibility of the United States as a global hegemon, Indonesia is rather using a sophisticated cover strategy. And balancing in neoclassical realism theory. In an increasingly uncertain international environment and declining credibility of the United States as a global hegemon, Indonesia is rather using a sophisticated cover strategy. By diversifying its European partners, Indonesia reduces its dependence on the US without severing ties or leading to open confrontation. This is a “multi-basket” strategy to mitigate risk.

From a structural realist perspective, Jakarta’s decision is a logical consequence of the transition to an emerging multipolar system. Europe, especially after the protracted conflict in Ukraine and under the Trump administration, is realizing that Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security are inseparable. This opens up space for countries like Indonesia to become more meaningful partners for European defense powers, which are also seeking access and influence in Asia. These partnerships are further strengthened by economic incentives, as European defense companies are more flexible and competitive in meeting Indonesia’s needs than their traditional partners.

Indonesia’s defense diplomacy in Eastern Europe in the current era reflects a continued strategic adaptation to changing geopolitical realities. This is not simply about the ability to purchase weapons, but clearly about building strategic autonomy, reducing the vulnerability of national defense equipment procurement, and positioning Indonesia as a relevant actor in an increasingly interconnected and competitive global security order. Essentially, by establishing partnerships with a broad spectrum of countries, from France and Italy (Western Europe) to Belarus and Russia (Eastern Europe), the progress of Indonesia’s defense diplomacy demonstrates that pragmatism and national interests continue to guide its foreign policy.

However, the effectiveness of this strategy is expected to depend heavily on Indonesia’s diplomatic ability to carefully manage foreign relations, ensuring that partnerships with one country do not automatically and significantly damage relations with another. Success in this diplomatic navigation is believed to be key for Indonesian policymakers not only to modernize its defense forces but also to further secure its strategic position amidst intensifying global power competition.

Hendra Manurung is currently Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Department of Defence Diplomacy, Faculty of Defence Strategy, Republic of Indonesia Defence University. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2026/07/31/indonesian-defense-diplomacy-in-eastern-europe-a-multipolar-strategy-amidst-shifting-global-political-geometry/