While looking at the long-term population trends of Uttar Pradesh and its Districts, in the process of preparing a resource atlas of Sambhal District, I was surprised to notice that the share of Uttar Pradesh in the population of India had been declining sharply and continuously from 1901 up to 1971. On further exploration, I learnt that the share of Bihar had continued to decline up to 1991, though the decline was not quite as sharp as in UP. On the other hand, the share of Kerala had been rising up to 1971 before beginning to sharply decline. Many other States which are witnessing decline in their share had a stable or rising share till recently.

The data implies that any delimitation based on recent numbers shall readjust representation for recent trends without taking into account long-term progression of population in different States. The long-term trends of population growth suggest that most of the States, including those who have experienced the greatest rise in shares, are likely to complete the cycle of demographic transition that began in the last century in the next three or four decades. That would be a more appropriate stage for carrying out a delimitation exercise. Such delimitation would reflect a more permanent state of demographic balance amongst different States.

It would be wise to wait for another three or four decades, as we have done since 1976, for the current phase of demographic progression to be completed.

STATES OF THE GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA PLAINS

Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh holds by far the largest share in the population of India. Even after the separation of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh forms one-sixth of India in terms of population. In terms of area, it is only about one-fourteenth. Density of population in the State at 829 persons per square km is two and a half times the average of India at 382.

The share of the State in 1901was nearly one-fifth, 19.57 percent to be exact. Between 1901 and 1911, the share declined by nearly 1.75 percentage points to 18.25 percent. The beginning of the twentieth century, and perhaps much of the nineteenth, was a difficult period for India and, especially for the State of Uttar Pradesh. In 1901-1911, the first decade of the century, the population of India grew by just 5.75 percent and that of Uttar Pradesh declined by 1.36 percent. The State then, like many parts of the country, was suffering from epidemics of malaria and bubonic plague, there was generalised scarcity of food and almost complete absence of clean drinking water, hygiene and basic health facilities.

The second decade of the twentieth century was worse than the first. During that decade, the epidemics, scarcity and lack of hygiene and health continued to persist, but were made worse by the large-scale recruitment of young men to serve the war-machine of the British as soldiers and labourers across the world and by repeated visitations of the deadly Spanish Flu during 1918. In that decade, the population of India as a whole suffered a decline of 0.31 percent. Population of the State fared much worse, it declined by 3.16 percent. Since, the State in that decade, unlike the previous decade of 1901-11, shared the decline with the whole country, its share in India declined by a relatively moderate half a percentage point.

After 1921, the population of India as a whole began to rise with some improvement in nutrition, hygiene and health. That year is considered the dividing line that launched India into a phase of continuous demographic growth. That phase is coming to an end now after nearly a century. But while much of the rest of the country began to improve, the conditions in Uttar Pradesh remained relatively poor, leading to its share in population continuing to decline up to 1971, when it reached 15.60, fully 4 percentage points below its share in 1901. Improvement in the share of Uttar Pradesh has occurred only during the last four decades. It has reached 16.50 in 2011, which is still 3 percentage points below its value in 1901.

The demographic story of Uttar Pradesh is the story of the impact of British colonisation of India at its worst. It took Uttar Pradesh, and many other parts of India, almost three decades after Independence to fully overcome the deleterious impact of that alien rule.

Bihar

Bihar, as constituted today (excluding Jharkhand) formed the second largest State by its share in the population of India in 1901. It formed 8.91 percent of India then. As the State, like Uttar Pradesh, began to suffer a continuous decline in its share from then onwards, its second position was taken over by Maharashtra in 1931. The share of Bihar continued to decline further - though more slowly than that of Uttar Pradesh - up to 1991, when it reached 7.62 percent.

In the two decades since then, the share of the State has risen by one percentage point to 8.60 percent which is still below 8.91 percent of 1901. Any fresh delimitation shall raise the representation of the State for the increase that has happened during these two decades.

Jharkhand

Though the share of Bihar has seen significant changes, that of Jharkhand, which was part of Bihar until recently but geographically lies largely outside the Ganga plains, on the Chhota Nagpur plateau, has remained almost unchanged. Between 1901 and 2011, its share in India has fluctuated in a narrow range between 2.6 and 2.8 percent. Delimitation now would probably not change anything for the State except for some rounding up or down.

West Bengal

The share of West Bengal remained remarkably stable between 7.0 and 7.3 percent in the entire pre-Independence period, except for a decline to slightly below 7 percent in 1921 and 1931. In the first decade after Independence, during 1951-1961, the share of the State rose significantly to reach around 8 percent. It remained nearly unchanged at that figure up to 1991. In the last two decades, however, the State has seen a decline in its share to 7.54 percent. Any delimitation at this stage shall be in the nature of a penalty for the decline of these two decades.

Assam

Assam had a very different experience than other States. The share of Assam in the population of India kept rising continuously throughout the British period and the rise persisted up to 1971. The share of the State was 1.35 percent in 1901; it doubled to 2.67 percent in 1971. This rise was a consequence of a systematic effort by the British to settle peasantry from several districts of what is now Bangladesh in the fertile plains of lower Assam. The effort continued through the entire British period and continued informally or illegally for some decades after Partition. The share of Assam in the population of India stabilised only after 1971.

In 1971, 1981 and 1991 its share remained around 2.67 percent. In the last two decades, the share of the State has declined marginally to 2.58 percent. The decline is not significant enough to have any effect on Assam’s share in parliamentary representation in the case of a fresh delimitation.

NORTHERN STATES

Rajasthan

Through the British period, the share of Rajasthan remained remarkably stable between 4.3 and 4.4, except for a decline to 4.1 in 1921 and 4.2 in 1931. This decline was related to the relatively intense impact of the disastrous decade of 1911-21 marked by the war and the great Spanish flu. At the end of the British period, Rajasthan had a share of 4.42 compared to 4.32 at the beginning of the twentieth century.

After Independence, however, the share of Rajasthan has risen continuously from decade to decade. It reached 4.70 in 1971 and has further risen to 5.66 now in 2011. Rajasthan is one of the States that shall gain substantially from any delimitation with the currently available data.

Haryana

Haryana, as constituted today, had a share of 1.94 percent in the population of India in 1901. The State suffered a great decline in 1901-1911, because the impact of the third wave of the Bubonic Plague that swept through India in early 1900s was the worst in the then Punjab that included Haryana. The southern districts of Punjab, which form Haryana now, also suffered from drought and famines. The share of Haryana in that decade fell from 1.94 to 1.66 percent.

For the next three decades, the share of the State remained nearly stable at around 1.65 percent. The decade of 1941-51 saw a dip from 1.65 to 1.57 percent associated largely with the massive movement of populations caused by the Partition.

From 1951 onwards, the share of Haryana in the population of India, like that of Rajasthan, has been rising continuously. It reached 1.83 percent in 1971 and 2.09 percent in 2011. This is another State that shall gain from a fresh delimitation with the currently available data.

Punjab

The pre-Independence demographic experience of Punjab is similar to that of Haryana. In the first decade of the twentieth century, the share of Punjab in the population of India fell sharply from 3.16 to 2.67 percent, for reasons that we have described earlier - visitation of the third wave of Plague, the continuing epidemics of malaria and famines and drought in several parts.

For the next three decades, the share of Punjab improved slowly to reach 3.01 percent in 1941. But the 1941-51 decade of War and Partition saw a much larger decline in Punjab than in Haryana. The share of Punjab in the population of India in 1951 was 2.54 percent.

From 1951 onwards, the share of Punjab, unlike that of Haryana, has been continuously declining. It reached 2.47 percent in 1971 and to 2.29 percent in 2011. The decline has been particularly sharp during the last two decades. Punjab, therefore, is one of the States that will lose in any delimitation exercise based on the current data.

The other three northern States - Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand - are demographically small hilly States. Their parliamentary representation is not decided on the basis of share in population alone.

However, Uttarakhand’s share has been remarkably stable between 0.82 to 0.85 percent in the whole of this period. It didn’t see a decline even in the first two difficult decades of the last century. Himachal Pradesh has followed the pattern of Punjab with its share in the population declining sharply during 1901-11 and again in 1941-51, followed by a continuous decline between 1951 and 2011.

The share of Himachal Pradesh in 2011 is 0.57 percent compared to 0.63 percent in 1971 and 0.81 percent in 1901. Jammu and Kashmir had a share of 0.90 percent in 1901, it rose to 0.96 percent in 1911 and 1921, fell back to 0.90 percent in 1951. It suffered a further decline to 0.81 percent in 1961. Since then, the share of the State has been rising. It reached 0.84 percent in 1971 and is 1.04 percent in 2011.

The author is the founding director of the Center for Policy Studies, Chennai. He was a Member of the Commission to Examine Sub-categorisation of Other Backward Classes, and former Chairman of the Indian Council of Social Science Research. Dr Bajaj was conferred the Padma Shri in 2022.

Based on

https://blog.cpsindia.org/2026/08/delimitation-in-midst-of-demographic.html

 (To be continued …)