Central and Western States

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh, like other States of this region had a very different demographic experience than the States of the Ganga plains and even the northern States. During 1901-1911, the share of Madhya Pradesh went up from 5.32 to 5.65 percent as many other States suffered a decline.

Over the next three decades, the share of Madhya Pradesh declined slowly to 5.39 in 1941 and had a somewhat sharper decline in the next decade to reach 5.16 percent in 1951. Since then, the share of the State has been continuously rising. It reached 5.48 percent in 1971 and is 6.00 percent in 2011. Madhya Pradesh is among the States that is likely to gain substantially in a delimitation carried out on the basis of the current populations.

Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh, which was part of Madhya Pradesh until 2000, also experienced a substantial rise in its share from 1.75 to 2.06 percent during 1901-11. Since then, its share has remained remarkably stable, fluctuating in the narrow range of 2.03 to 2.16 percent. The State is unlikely to be impacted one way or the other by a delimitation exercise.

Maharashtra

Maharashtra, like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, experienced a substantial rise in its share in the population of India in the first decade of the twentieth century. It rose from 8.13 percent in 1901 to 8.52 percent in 1911. The share fell to 8.30 percent in the next decade, rose to 8.59 in 1931 and again fell to 8.40 percent in 1941.

In the next decade of War and Partition, the State recorded a considerable gain, with its share rising to 8.86 percent in 1951. This was because of a considerable influx of the migrants from Pakistan to the State and particularly to the city of Mumbai after Partition.

After 1951, the share of Maharashtra has grown slowly up to 2001. But it has declined slightly during 2000-2011. This may be an indication of a long-term trend of declining growth. Its share in 1971 was 9.20 percent in 1971 and is nearly the same at 9.28 percent in 2011.

Gujarat

Gujarat is perhaps the only State whose share in the population of India has kept growing consistently since 1901. The only decline occurred in 1981-91, when the share of the State fell from 4.99 to 4.88. In has risen again to 4.99 in 2011. The share of Gujarat was 3.81 percent in 1901, 4.50 in 1951, 4.99 in 1971 and the same 4.99 in 2011.

SOUTHERN STATES

Odisha

Odisha is usually counted among the eastern States. We are counting it among the Southern States, because it has suffered a considerable decline in its share of the population of India, a trend that is similar to the Southern States.

Odisha had a share of 4.32 percent in 1901. It rose to 4.51 percent in 1911, when the share of many other States was declining. It fell marginally to 4.44 percent in 1921 and rose to 4.48 in

1931. After that, the share of the State has been continuously declining. It was 4.00 percent in

1961 and 1971 and is 3.47 percent in 2011. This decline puts Odisha among the States that are likely to lose the most in the case of a fresh delimitation on the basis of current data.

Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana)

The share of Andhra Pradesh, that has Odisha on its north, also rose considerable in the first decade, from 8.00 percent in 1901 to 8.51 percent in 1911. For the next four decades it hovered around 8.60. The share was 8.62 percent in 1951. Since Independence, the share of the State has been declining consistently and has reached 6.99 percent in 2011 compared to 7.94 in 1971, which forms the basis of the currently existing delimitation. The share of the State had remained nearly stable only during 1981-91. Since 1991, the decline has been sharper.

Andhra Pradesh, along with other Southern States, is likely to lose considerably if a fresh delimitation is done on the basis of the numbers of the latest Census.

Karnataka

The share of Karnataka has remained relatively stable up to the recent decades. Its share was 5.48 in 1901. It declined slowly to 5.10 in 1941, rose to 5.37 in 1951 and remained near that number up to 1971. There was a further rise to 5.43 in 1981.

For the next three decades, the share of the State has been declining sharply compared to its earlier experience and has reached 5.10 percent in 2011. This decline of recent decades is likely to result in some loss for Karnataka if a fresh delimitation is done on the basis of the data of 2011.

Kerala

Unlike most other States, the share of Kerala in the population of India kept rising consistently from 1901 to 1971. Its share was 2.68 percent in 1901 and reached 3.89 percent in 1971. Since then, it has been rapidly declining and has reached 2.76 percent in 2011, which is very near its share of 2.68 percent in 1901. The decline since 1971 has negatived the gains of 1901 to 1971.

It seems that Kerala began its cycle of population growth and decline early and has already completed its demographic transition to reach a stage where its population shall soon be entering the phase of contraction. Kerala shall lose the most in its relative representation in the case of a fresh delimitation based on the latest data of 2011.

Tamil Nadu

Contrary to almost all other States, Tamil Nadu experienced a considerable rise in its share in both 1901-11 and 1911-21. At least one of these two decades had proved disastrous for other States. In these two decades, its share rose from 8.08 to 8.61 percent, making it the second largest State by population in 1921, after only Uttar Pradesh.

After 1921, the share of the State has continuously declined, except for a trivially small rise in 1951. The decline has been particularly sharp after 1971, though the 2011 numbers indicate some moderation of the declining trend.

The share of the State was 7.52 in 1971 and is 5.96 percent in 2011. The State is likely to lose the most in its absolute number of Lok Sabha seats in case of fresh delimitation.

Conclusion

1)     The share of different States in the total population of India has been changing since 1901. The pace and trend of change have been different for different States. The share of some States was rising in the earlier part of this period, the share of others began to rise in the later part.

2)    The trends indicate that the States of India, like all of India together, have been passing through a demographic transition in this period. For some, the rise in population - that is generally a consequence of improvements in nutrition, health, hygiene and sanitation, etc. - began early. They were growing already in the British period. Many of those early beginners have passed through various stages of demographic transition, have completed the process and have entered the stage of stable or declining population. Others started late and are still at the stage of rising population.

3)    Delimitation on the basis of population of a particular Census in this scenario means altering representation when the relative population of different States is changing sharply from decade to decade. Many of the States that would gain now if the delimitation is done on the basis of 2011 population may have lost when the delimitation was done on the basis of 1971 population. Others may have gained in the last delimitation and may gain again now. Still others, may have lost then and may lose again. It depends entirely on what stage of the demographic curve a State is at the particular point of time when the delimitation is undertaken.

4)    We have described these changes for different States at several points of time. The pattern of changes shows that the process seems fundamentally arbitrary. That arbitrariness arises from trying to change representation when different States are still going through their separate processes of demographic transition.