Learning lessons: Protesters stay one step ahead of rulers
by James M Dorsey on 20 Oct 2019 2 Comments

There’s a déjà vu feeling to this year’s wave of protests across the Arab world. It’s not that this year saw the toppling of the leaders of Algeria and Sudan as a result of popular revolts, a harking back to the 2011 protests that overthrew the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. It’s that it’s the protesters in Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco rather than illiberal or autocratic regimes that have learnt the lessons of 2011.

 

Had illiberal and autocratic leaders learnt the lessons, they would not have been taken again by surprise by mass protests, often sparked by a black swan. Lessons learnt would have meant putting their ear to the ground, hearing the groundswell of anger and frustration boiling at the surface over lack of economic opportunity and basic services, widespread corruption that benefits the few and complicates life for the many, and a clamouring for the ability to vent those grievances.

 

Lessons learnt would have meant addressing those concerns before it’s too late and spill into the streets in massive votes of no-confidence in the political and economic system and its leaders. It’s a lesson that is valid beyond the Arab world with similar protests, like in 2011, erupting across the globe in countries such as Hong Kong, Russia, Peru, Haiti, Ecuador, Indonesia, and world-wide climate change-related demonstrations.

 

For their part, demonstrators in Algeria and Sudan concluded from the 2011 protests that toppling a leader was the beginning not the end of the process. In Algeria, protesters remain in the streets six months after President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stepped down, battling the army for a political process that will guarantee structural change rather than enable an electoral process that ensures that the military and its aligned business interests remain the power behind the throne.

 

Sudanese demonstrators surrendered the street only after agreement had been reached with the military on a three-year-long transition towards civilian rule. The Sudanese and Algerian experiences, like the lessons to be learnt from the 2011 revolts, suggest that the playing field in the wake of the fall of an autocrat is striking a balance between protesters’ demands for fundamental change and the determination of elites and the military to preserve their economic interests, some degree of control of security and safeguards against being held accountable for past abuse.

 

What demonstrators have going for them, beyond the power of the street, is the fact that popular discontent is not the only thing that mitigates against maintenance of the pre-protest status quo. Countries across the Middle East and North Africa, characterized by youth bulges, can no longer evade economic reform that addresses widespread youth unemployment, the need to create large numbers of jobs, and inevitable diversification and streamlining of bloated government bureaucracies.

 

Algeria is a case in point. Foreign exchange reserves have dropped from US$ 193.6 billion in 2014 to US$ 72 billion in 2019. Reserves cover 13 months of imports at best in a country that imports 70 percent of what it consumes. “If the state can no longer deliver goods and services, socio-economic discontent will rise further…. In order to avoid such a situation… the state and its citizens will have to renegotiate their relationship. In the past the state provided, and Algerians abided. This is no longer economically feasible today, nor is it what Algerians appear to want as they seek more transparency, less corruption, and better governance of Algeria’s resources,” said Algeria scholar Dalia Ghanem.

 

Attention in the past years since the 2011 popular Arab revolts has focussed on the consequences of the Saudi-UAE led counterrevolution that brutally rolled back protesters achievements in Egypt and contributed to the Iranian-backed military campaign of Houthi rebels in Yemen and the devastating subsequent military intervention in that country as well as civil wars in Syria and Libya.

 

Yet, the past eight years have also been characterized by issues-oriented protests that often involved new, creative forms of expression of discontent. Iraq, Algeria and Sudan rather than Egypt contain lessons for the future.

 

Egypt’s field marshal-turned-president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi may have squashed recent protests with mass arrests and security force violence, but his conspiratorial depictions of a plot engineered by the repressed and weakened Muslim Brotherhood are unlikely to dampen widespread discontent with his failed economic policies that have benefited the elite and impoverished many. Mr. Al-Sisi may have ended the protests for now, but continued refusal to address grievances makes Egypt an accident waiting to happen.

 

The demography of protesters in Iraq proves the point. The protests could have been avoided had the Iraqi government focused on tackling corruption, ensuring the delivery of basic services, and creating jobs for university graduates and opportunities for those who returned from defeating the Islamic State to find that they were deprived of opportunities.

 

One lesson of the protests in Iraq and Hong Kong is the fact that repressive government responses, the killing of more than 100 demonstrators in Iraq or the banning of face masks in Hong Kong, fuel rather than calm public anger. Said Hong Kong pro-democracy law maker Fernando Cheung: “This is adding fuel to the fire. This will mark the beginning of riots in Hong Kong.”

 

Courtesy

https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.com/2019/10/learning-lessons-protesters-stay-one.html

User Comments Post a Comment
The enduring heroism and patriotism of the Indian army lies in the fact despite the high costs they pay for fighting Muslim, Christian and Marxist-Maoist terrorism in different parts of the country through their counter-terrorism and counter-insurgent units, they have remained under civilian control. And this is in stark contrast to the out-of-control and Frankestein monstor army across the border. But the flip side to our virtue is that all appointments to the highest positions in the army, navy and airforce are made by the government - in effect, politicians. Thus like the judiciary which is thoroughly corrupt and which has become a purchasable commodity, corruption and worse, complicit silence from army chiefs on issues of national security is beginning to raise its head in this once wonderful pillar of our nation. Our men in uniform at the highest levels need to take note of this emerging trend and resist fiercely all and every pressure to comply with anti-national policies and recommendations as the price to be paid for appointments to high positions in service and later as post-retirement sinecures.
Radha Rajan
October 29, 2010
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Welcome Smt Radha Rajan. Long time no see. Eagerly awaiting your articles.
sivakumar
October 29, 2010
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People like Nancy Kaul and Radha Rajan, who represent the quintessence of Indian civilisation, should rightfully be the leaders of India, not the
present sham of Congress led UPA-II which is hostage to anti-Indian forces-the most dangerous being the jihadi monster Pakistan. Indians of today need to understand that the Congress is the preferred instrument of jihadis to balkanize and islamize Bharat. The Congress still calls jihadi terrorists as 'militants'. No wonder the jihadis openly spew venom and spit fire against India. The Congress reactions are typically only verbal with no action-like: "they are desperate", "we are watching closely", "we are concerned", "PM will raise this with the Pakis"," Pak is the epicenter of terrorism". Our mainstream media, in its scramble for paid news,
gives abundant free space to jihadis, secessionists and all anti-national forces without
discrimination. At the recent meeting of Kashmir secessionists an extraordinary thing happened which was ignored by most MSM: The Panun Kashmir protesters who held aloft the
Indian Tricolour and raised pro-India slogans were evicted from the scene by Delhi Police instead of the anti-Indian separatists. Delhi Police was informed about the event in advance by the Panun people. This is a blot on the Congress. The Congress has brought the country
to the brink of disaster and all of us must come together to vigorously counter this assault on our Motherland. JAI HIND!
shivpratap
October 29, 2010
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The enduring heroism and patriotism of the Indian army lies in the fact despite the high costs they pay for fighting Muslim, Christian and Marxist-Maoist terrorism in different parts of the country ////////// the fact is correct but as per my perception, I change the order Marxist-Maoist, Christian and Muslim terror. When the men in uniform loose their lives because political complacency (or I should say connivance), marxist and white christian church controlled media (especially visual) discusses on their popular prime night news shows the blaberrings of the likes of arundhati roy. the likes of barka dutt tries to justify the rantings of anti nationals like geelani and arundhati roy. This group is joined by villainy comedian vinod mehtha. The sort of counter available among Hindutva circles is total inertia deep slumber. Unless and until the forces of Hindutva takes anti national white church sponsored print and visual media by its horns by having Hindutva forces own strong mass reachable print and visual media, lies and utter lies published and broadcasted by anti national media would continue to be perceived by literates as well as illeterates as the ultimate truth. writing thousands of pages in internet is for the self consumption of a few hundred or may be a few thousand like minded people. God give budhi and strength to Hindutva forces to have their own strong and print and visual media presence at the earliest.
krishnakumar
October 29, 2010
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Sandhaya ji my most sincere gratitude for consistent stand and action taken by you and Nancy ji on Kashmir issue , my heart bleeds at present situation. My most sincere gratitude with utmost humility to Nancy ji as well yourself
Rupesh
October 29, 2010
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The men in uniform of all the three services rendered exemplary service in all the wars in all the battle fronts till date.There may be few exceptions of cowardice,treachery,corruption etc., here and there.But, the services withstood all these ill qualities and show their excellent qualities.It is the politicians,particularly the ruling parties,who betray the excellent work done by the services,for their political gains.The voters should be vigilant about this.Otherwise the victory gained by the services will become useless.
P.N.Sankararaman
October 30, 2010
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Please see this article in the Time magazine dated June 28, 1982 which talks of the Indian soldier being the lowest paid but the most highly motivated - "...In other ways, India's pay scales show that money does not totally determine quality. A recruit in the Indian army receives only $259 a year (vs. about $5,500 for a U.S. Army private), yet that army is recognized as one of the best trained, most highly motivated in the world."
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,949509,00.html#ixzz13oyMWiRu

A country which does not respect and take care of its soldiers is sooner or later doomed to oblivion.
Haarish
October 30, 2010
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Nancy Ji Namaskar, Entire nation joins you in paying homage to martyrs especially at a time, when Kargil Heros are forgotten,even by their top brass.The martyrs for Kashmir came from every nook and corner of the country--from Kashmir to Kanyakumari.There is hardly any place in Kashmir that is not wet with Indian blood.The supreme sacrifice of airborne Indian troops who arrived in Srinagar, on 27th October 1947, few men of the First Sikh, who went to action that day returned home.How can countrymen forget their martyrdom?
C.L.Gadoo
October 30, 2010
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I was seriously hoping that some one from the above commentators might mention about the fate of those 60,000+ (& counting) Shaheeds (Martyrs) unarmed Muslims of the Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir by the hands of the "brave" Indian soldiers,but alas none did.So i decided to crash this meeting of the Hyenas,reminising about the successful kills they had.Keep enjoying it boys till you can as the end is very near.So sad.
observer
October 30, 2010
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This is truely what the country should be debating. The right to knowledge and then the courage to write the truth.- we as a country need to do much more on the front of the Defence Forces, their truths and rights and more than that the respect that each soldier desrves! India is truly faulting and handing our brave, betrayal
Observer does not know the difference between a soldier and a terrorist.
Maj Udai is a soldier and Yaseen Malik, Ishfaq Wani and many more bloody terrorists.
Bravery is respect and celebration and martyrdom in the service of the country-Maj Udai and many more like him are respect and celebration of bravery And each one of the terrorists are a shame on humanity and need to to be wiped out without a trace.
Prabhu, pune
October 31, 2010
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Kashmir continues to bleed. We see the horrendous brutality, unstopped and unpunished barbarities unleashed against the defenseless population. A deliberate, systematic and officially sanctioned massive campaign of brutal oppression launched against the people of Kashmir is still on the increase. The killings of unarmed, defenseless civilians in July 2010 quickly escalated into a frenzy of revolt against India. There is a deliberate targeting of youth in flimsy hopes to crush a legitimate and popular uprising against occupation. The gravity of the situation in Kashmir can only be imagined but not explained. Whatever be the level of violence committed by over 700,000 Indian military and paramilitary forces, the far more important and poignant aspect of the situation is the acute suffering of the whole population caused by frequent curfews, disruption of normal life, arrest and detention of innocent civilians by the occupation authority. This is a situation without precedent in the South Asian subcontinent.Far from seeking to rectify its atrocious human rights record, India has legalized its state-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. It has given its forces powers to shoot to kill and the license to abuse the people of Kashmir in whatever ways they like in order to suppress the popular movement for basic human rights and human dignity. Words can only cheapen the acute grief and afflictions experienced by the entire Kashmiri population. Every person has one or more tales of weeping and sobbing to recount.
observer
October 31, 2010
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Ever since the Instrument of Accession was signed by the Maharaja of J&K, Shri Hari Singh on 26th Oct 1947,and subsequent seal of approval by Governor-General Mountbaton on 27th Oct 1947, the state had become an integral part of India. So the claim of 'observer' is based on ignorance or perhaps 'taquiya'. Indian security forces are duty-bound to protect their territory. It is a fact that no other Indian state has been as pampered as Kashmir, and this at the cost of the rest of India! Our Armed Forces need the support of the Central Govt and all patriots of this nation, including Kashmiris, so that the nation's integrity can be protected at all costs.
Vijayalakshmi
October 31, 2010
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For too long India misled the international community on Kashmir, claiming Kashmiris were eager to share in India's economic prosperity and that Pakistan was holding them back by infiltrating terrorists to spread mayhem.Two good things happened that India did not anticipate. It even welcomed one of those two things not knowing what was coming down the road.First, former Pakistani president Musharraf ordered all Pakistan-based Kashmiri groups to cease support for their kin in Indian-occupied Kashmir. This he did in 2004 as an exaggerated gesture of goodwill to make new peace talks with India a success. The Indians dragged the peace talks and rendered Musharraf's effort a failure. But they were jubilant nevertheless at this unilateral concession from Pakistan. What they didn't know is that something will happen five years down the road that will set New Delhi’s Kashmir policy fifty years back.This is where the second good thing happened. In 2009, slowly the Kashmiris began coming out on the streets in mass protests. This unnerved more than half a million Indian soldiers crammed into the tiny occupied territory. Indian soldiers were used to confronting hardened Kashmiri freedom fighters. Ordinary Kashmiris provided the fighters all kinds of support but avoided direct clashes with the Indian military. Thanks to Indian soldiers going overboard in the organized rape of women as a tool of punishment, June 2009 saw the outpour of Kashmiri anger against the 63-year-old Indian occupation. It was even bigger than 1989, when Kashmiris began an armed struggle against the occupation. There were other triggers attributed to Indian arrogance, like gifting Kashmiri land to build Indian religious temples.By summer 2010, this turned into what many now call the Kashmir Intifada, likening it to the Palestinian resistance against Israeli occupation. The world is taking note of the courage of unarmed Kashmiris, men, women and teenagers facing off a large organized force.Not just that. The world is also beginning to question why India is persecuting fair-minded Indians like novelist Arundhati Roy who questions India’s unnecessary occupation of a land and people who are not Indian ,do not look Indian and do not want to be Indian, so sooner India realises that is better for all parties involved.
observer
November 01, 2010
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Thanks for an excellent piece Nancy esp info about Yasin Malik. That guy needs to be exposed for his role in JKLF and killings. Wish u could devote a article on his role in JKLF, insurgency, marrying a Pakistani girl and expose him for ever.
sanjeev nayyar
November 01, 2010
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Observer - who is persecuting the infantile attention grabbing anti-nationalist with foreign funding called Arundhati Roy? Don't you know the GoI decided to ignore her and not even book her for sedition? It is hurt citizens who have filed some cases, and god knows that Sonia Signora will do about it - nothing probably
Asteroid
November 01, 2010
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Observer is a virus designed by Pak ISI to automatically spew hatred against India/ Hindus. It is a wellknown virus in cyberspace. If he is a real person with a respectable identity he represents only his sick self and not any Kashmiri. It is pre-programmed hatemongers like him who are responsible for all the violence and killings in J&K which are chronicled by Google continuously in realtime. So nobody can be deceived. Readers are invited to browse the sites: atlas shrugs;
sheikh yermami-winds of jihad; faithfreedom international.
sambadami
November 01, 2010
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People who come forward to provide gratuitous comic relief should not be reviled. Observer must be read in times of great physical stress. Now how many of you can deny that he makes us all die with laughter. So bless his generous heart and just hope that he continues to keep us all entertained.
Radha Rajan
November 02, 2010
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I am glad Observer's profane comment on the author of the article has been removed. May I suggest that all of the Observer's rambling and obviously untruthful observations be blocked in future?
Indira Oorath
India Oorath
November 02, 2010
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Only time will tell...............Yes!,only time will tell.
oberver
November 03, 2010
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The moronic Paki Observer should know that his country is doomed. It is a question of when it is going to implode rather than if. Please let him keep us all entertained. Where else we will go for ( free!) comic relief?
Rama
November 03, 2010
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There should be a Plebicite in Kashmir allowing Kashmiris the option to go either to India or to Pakistan .If they vote
for Pakistan ,India should handover Kashmir to Pakistan .This will pave good relations between India and Paksitan, and also save
huge cost of retaining Kasmir in the present state of confustion where vested interests are taking advantage of the situation.And
then India can move ahead on the path of democracy and economic development and claim a position of global power in the world .
khan Sahib
November 04, 2010
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Here is some basic history for KhanSahib/Observer. Foreign invaders from Arabia/Central Asia-motivated by a messianic ideology invaded Bharat, committed genocide killing about 80 million pre-islamic sons of the soil-mostly Hindus-and converted many thru violence. The natives resisted them fiercely and successfully over
almost a millenium. That is why India is still overwhelmingly Hindu. People like khan s./observer are our remote kin but the evil ideology created a wall between us. Without the
ideology of Arab imperialism they are our brothers. If they realize this maybe they will stop hating us. (read the site Hindu Genocide and others listed in Vijayvaani comments).
sambadami
November 04, 2010
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To the above commentator,stop reading the mumbo jumbo books of the violent deranged psychopathic serial killer Anwar Sheikh,you will only get crazed ideas of the world from him,like some one said "Garbage in......Garbage out!"
observer
November 04, 2010
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I didn't know about Anwar Shaikh. Because Observer condemned and abused him I asked Google. It turns out that late Anwar was a recognized international scholar of Islam who exposed jihadi atrocities against Hindus and their motivation in destroying thousands of Hindu temples. He admitted to killing a Sikh
when under the spell of jihad but this triggered
his spiritual transformation and he renounced Islam. Some of his writings are available online.
In condemning such a renowned scholar Observer has exposed himself.
sambadami
November 04, 2010
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Good to hear that you finally got your "Eureka Moment",enjoy it while it lasts!
observer
November 04, 2010
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We hear you our brave souls! your sacrifice will translate into immense power to punish anyone who dare to insult us.
Gyanendra
June 01, 2011
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