Inviting an Ecological Disaster
by K P Prabhakaran Nair on 29 Oct 2021 12 Comments

The Kerala State Chief Minister returned from New Delhi after meeting the central railway minister to get the nod for his pet project, the semi-high speed Silverline rail from Trivandrum to Kasargod. The centre offered a token support of Rs 2150 crores plus Rs 975 crores for the purchase of 185 ha. land, but refused to stand as security for any loan the state government might raise from an outsider agency. The total cost is pegged at Rs 63,941 crores. 

 

The Chief Minister went to New Delhi to get the final sanction for his pet project which will reduce the normal running time from 15 hours to about 5 hours. The argument in its support is that it would attract more tourists, decongest traffic and reduce the carbon footprint. This author believes that these are imaginary benefits, without an understanding of the term “carbon footprint”, leave alone tourist inflow and decongesting traffic.

 

This is a jargon bandied by people who do not know the actual science behind carbon footprint. In simple language, carbon footprint is the total amount of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) (including carbon dioxide and methane) generated by human activity. So, if a lot of petrol/diesel is used in locomotion, it can generate a huge carbon footprint. At the same time, if a lot of chemical fertilizers like urea are used in agriculture, as in the green revolution, it can also create a huge carbon footprint due to the emission of nitrous oxide.

 

Both trap radiant heat in the stratosphere and lead to global warming. This, primarily the effect of nitrous oxide, was overlooked by many scientists, until this author pointed it out (Nair, 2019). However, Prof. Manabe, Princeton University, USA, demonstrated the effect of carbon dioxide on global warming through physics “models”, for which he received the Physics Nobel Prize 2021, along with two other physicists, Prof. Hasselmann of Germany and Prof. Parisi of Italy.

 

Global warming and unseasonal rainfall

 

The month of October saw torrential rainfall in Kerala and Uttarakhand. October is the month when the south-west monsoon retreats from India and the north-east monsoon sets in, bringing rain over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra and Kerala. There have been two rain-bearing “low pressure systems” active in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal since the past fortnight. The low pressure system in the Arabian Sea contributed to heavy rains in Kerala, whereas western disturbances, which are periodic influxes of moisture-laden clouds from the Mediterranean and common during winter, caused the heavy rain in northern India. The Bay of Bengal is still warm and strong winds from there are reaching as far as Uttarakhand and will contribute to rainfall in several parts of north-eastern India.

 

It is important to note that both low sea pressure and western disturbances are tangentially connected to the larger pattern of global warming, which substantiates the predictions of Nair (2019) on global warming.

 

More worrying than the financial implications is whether the government has made a cost-benefit analysis of the project. The ecological price of the project far outweighs the time saved in transportation cost. Keralites are slowly limping back to normalcy after the fury of the third flood within a span of three years. The lives lost and loss of property has been huge. But even after so many disasters, the mindset of politicians is unchanged. Hence the desire for the semi-high speed Silverline rail project. Besides the huge Japanese loan, touted as “interest free”, but in reality cannot be because of the strongly appreciating Yen, there are serious ecological considerations that would be very detrimental to life and land in Kerala.

 

The project would require the government to acquire close to 1,400 hectares of land and will cut through many of Kerala’s ecologically sensitive and fragile coastal ecosystems. The line will pass through several ecologically sensitive regions like Madayipara biodiversity park in Kannur district, Kadalundi bird sanctuary in Kozhikode, the Ponnani-Thrissur Kole wetlands and historical Thirunavaya ponds, lakes and wetlands in Malappuram. Consequently, the construction and operation of the rail will degrade, fragment and ultimately destroy these ecosystems. Construction activities will also hasten soil erosion and degradation, eventually displacing many. The ecological and human cost for Kerala will be incalculable. 

 

Mindless consumerism at the cost of nature

 

With a population density of 860 persons/square km in Kerala, as against the Indian average of 368/square km (almost 300% increase, Census 2011), Keralites are land hungry; hence the scramble for more land: for buildings, tourist destinations, gated-multi-story residences, parks, swimming pools, and so on. The “land mafia” is a living threat to Kerala. The unscientific buildings, both for human residence and tourist destinations, have led to huge landslides in the recent rains and also in earlier years. Add to this the menace of the “quarry mafia”. The Census records that during the decade between 2001 and 2011 while the population of Kerala grew only by 5 per cent, the number of houses built grew by 19.9 per cent!

 

Kerala’s achievements in human development have been exemplary. However, it can no longer rest on past glory as evidenced by the present state of affairs in the state vis-à-vis the ecological terrain. It is now crystal clear that the loss of lives and destruction of properties has neither elicited an intelligent public policy response nor a citizen’s movement of sufficient strength to contain the gathering ecological insecurity, except stray articles by concerned scientists.

 

This total absence of opposition to the government’s thoughtlessness will cost the state dear in the years to come if this quixotic Silverline project is allowed to go forward. One must remember that we are in the Anthropocene Age, where human impact on the earth’s ecology and ecosystems, including anthropogenic global warming, can have very deleterious long term effects on human, animal and plant life. Hence, it would be in the fitness of things for the Kerala government to desist from going forward with this project.  

 

Reference:

Nair, K.P.P., 2019: Combating Global Warming. The Role of Crop Wild Relatives For Food Security, Springer Nature, Switzerland AG, Springer Climate Series.

User Comments Post a Comment
Can someone explain to this silly Christian that there is no climatic static point. The planet is always either warming or cooling. When it is cooling we call it an ice age. Millions starve or freeze to death (ie 13th century to 17th century) known as the Little Ice Age.

When it is warming, plants grow better, making herbivores healthier, which makes carnivores and omnivores healthier too.

Actually, the healthiest era in that regard was the Jurassic, which enjoyed five times more atmospheric CO2 than now.

So, a message to our friend the sun, keep it up mate, keep our planet warming and helping our plants grow better.

Oh, and somebody please, explain to that silly Christian that Kiribati Island is sinking, the sea is not rising more than around 3 mm, which is normal after a Little Ice Age.

Tony Ryan
October 29, 2021
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My first reaction reading the comment of Mr Ryan on my article was to ignore it, because, I believe in the adage "Fools rush where angels fear to tread". To begin with, my article was not focused on global warming, but, on the economic feasibility and ecological integrity of the semi-high speed silverline train which the Kerala Chief Minister is focusing on. I thought, Mr. Ryan had the basic intelligence to understand, this, obviously, I am beginning to suspect that.

As early as mid seventies I had suspected that the highly chemical-centric farming, that India was practising, euphemistically called the "green revolution", was adding to the anthropogenic warming, that is caused by human activity. This was mainly because the byproduct of hydrolysis of urea, which was indiscriminately applied to both rice and wheat to boost the yields of the "miracle dwarf varieties" was causing the excess emission of nitrous oxide which would pierce the ozone layer in the stratosphere and cause more of radiant heat to reach the earth's crust causing ambient temperature to rise. Professor Paul Crutzen proved this and was awarded the Nobel for chemistry in 1995. Simultaneously Professor Manabe was working on the effect of CO2 a green house gas which is the byproduct of industrial activity and automobile emission on the rise of ambient temperature. He shared the Nobel for Physics with Professors Hasselmann and Professor Parisi this year.

I thought, Mr. Ryan, knew what civility is, obviously he lacks that as well (upbringing?) ; and for his kind information, may I please point out, I am a Hindu and a devout Hindu at that and not a "silly Christian" as he presumes

I have no intention to continue this futile discussion with Ryan, because I have more worthwhile things to do and not waste my time. His comments on what I have written shall be ignored.

P.S. I request the Editor, Ms. Sandhya Jain, to issue a warning to Mr Ryan
Professor Kodoth Prabhakaran Nair
October 29, 2021
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Shri Professor Kodoth Prabhakaran Nair,

Your article was informative and scientifically grounded. Many thanks.

Re: Mr.Ryan, he seems to be caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, from previous comments on previous posts, as well as this one, he is committed to scientific enquiry. On the other hand, he is not willing to accept the scientific views of eminent scientists, whom you have quoted.

In my opinion, you should continue to engage in conversation with him, and educate him. He is either a very young person or not fully well informed.

I agree that being civil is important. He is obviously not well informed about India. Otherwise he would know immediately from your name that you are both a Hindu and from the state of Kerala, an additional reason why you are concerned with a Kerala problem.

At any rate, it is quite silly for any one to call someone else a 'silly Christian.
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
October 29, 2021
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Dear Dr Vijaya Rajiva, I am grateful for your comments on the scientific reasoning of my article. As for Mr Ryan, I shall ignore him


Sorry for this delayed response, my computer was down until now


May God, Almighty, bless you for your kindness
Professor Kodoth Prabhakaran Nair
October 30, 2021
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Thankyou Professor Nair,

May the Divine Power bless you. These days it is unusual for people to say that they are both scientists, as well as devout Hindus.
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
October 30, 2021
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Dear Dr Vijaya Rajiva, Thank you. I think it is the "purva janma vasanas" which motivate us (I mean my wife, Dr. Pankajam Nair, a nematologist trained in Europe, as well) towards this religiosity, and, the little science that we know of, further strengthens this thought
Professor Kodoth Prabhakaran Nair
October 31, 2021
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Professor Nair,

I agree it must be purva janma vasanas.

I myself from an orthodox Kerala family ( Dad a dean of Andhra Medical College, long since gone, god bless him, siblings all doctors and scientists, I am the odd woman out, a philosopher), I taught Western philosophy and went through many karmic cycles of thought, till at last, owing to purva janma vasanas, I have come to an understanding/knowledge of Vedic thought, and our Sanskrit heritage.

Karma and rebirth . . . .
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
October 31, 2021
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So aptly said, dear, Dr. Vijaya Rajiva, and, so very pleased to learn that you, as well, have your roots in Kerala. We hope your mother is still around, though you have lost your dear father. My wife and I were in Europe and Africa for long, and have come back to Bharath and settelled down in Calicut; though I was offered Canadian citizenship, we preferred to live in this great land

We congratulate on your pursuit of Vedic knowledge, and, may God, Almighty help you in this endeavour. After returning to Bharath, my wife and I went on many pilgrimages, including a 3-weeks Kailas Yatra. We have wo children, an elder son, a doctor, and a younger one a daughter, an engineer. both pursuing their own lives.

I recollect that last year when I wrote about a conversation between Einstein and Tagore, we had some interesting exchanges of thoughts. Do you recollect?.

With our warm regards,


Prabhakaran Nair and Pankajam Nair
Professor Kodoth Prabhakaran Nair
November 01, 2021
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@Professor Nair,

Yes, I recall your talk about Tagore and Einstein. The latter famously said : without the concept of zero (from India ! ) there would have been no modern science or modern mathematics.

True. I mentioned once to my opthalmologist ( a Canadian)that I was the odd woman out, and he said : well in ancient India, it was the philosphers who were first philosophers before they became scientists and doctors.

I am puzzled by Tony Ryan. He seems to be well informed in certain areas, but I recall that on other threads here in Vijayvaani, he attacked Big Pharma, and said that the vaccine was an attempt to fool people !

Does he believe that small pox vaccine was a hoax or malaria or philaria, or tuberculosis, or a whole list of vaccines/cyres for various diseases ? Is modern medicine a hoax?

No, my mother, god bless her, passed away, about 20 years ago. My Dad passed away in 1976. After his retirement from Andhra Medical College (Vizag) he was professor of bacteriololgy in Calicut Medical College, and in Tirvandrum Medical College. At some stage you may have studied with him (Dr. N.G.Pandalai). Finally, he retired as Principal of Alleppey Medical College, which had recently been established.

Since my siblings and I grew up in Andhra Pradesh, we are not as familiar with our extended family in Kerala, apart from immediate uncles, aunts and cousins. Dr. K.R. Pandalai, our cousin was Principal of Trivandrum Medical College. You may know him too as well as his wife, who taught at Maharajah's College (Professor Lila Pandalai).

My parents were originally from Mavelikara, and there there is one prominent family, my maternal grandfather was from there, his name Kerala Varma Rajah. When I last visited Kerala (from Canada) I was saddened to see the old palace had been sold and the occupants there were all either scatterd in various parts of the world, or had passed
on. They had their own temple, a Shiva temple and my aunt told me that the pujari there, a Nambooiri is the direct descendant of the old one from ancient times !

The royal family of Kerala, from what little I know of its history was a very progressive one, and we all know about the famous Declaration of Temple Entry of all castes.

Your wife is also a scientist. That is commendable.

I wish you both and your family all the best.
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
November 01, 2021
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Dear Dr Vijaya Rajiva,

Thank you for a detailed note about your family background. In fact, my wife's niece is married into a royal family from Kochi, and from what we have heard, the husband of Kaumudi chechi, who we called "Thampuran", who passed on last year, was to become the King/Ruler of Kochi kingdom - we call him Thampuran - an engineer by training, who studied in Benares Hindu University, in Varanasi, but, a highly principled one, who chose to be a commoner than a ruler. I used to discuss many things with him, both science and religion, a remarkable person, who presented us with a copy of Narayaneeyam which is a translation from the original sanskrit composition, of Narayana Bhattathirippad. Though I cannot fluently read or write malayalam (my wife studied in Kerala, not I, as my father was a Police Officer during the British empire serving in South Kanara in Karnataka, who was decorated with the King George V medal for bravery and honesty).

I have heard the name Dr Pandalai both from both my late eldest brother Dr. Krishnan Nair and my late elder sister Dr.Meenakshi Amma. They spoke very highly of him, and, for your kind in formation, I am not a medical doctor, but, an agricultural/soil scientist

I was wondering, if we could please have your personal email id, we could exchange more news. Mine is drkppnair@gmail.com


We thank you for your good wishes


Please have a restful night


With warm regards,


Prabhakaran and Pankajam Nair
Prabhakaran Kodoth Nair
November 02, 2021
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Thankyou Professor Nair, for a detailed reply. Shall send you my email id.

Small spelling error in my previous comments : filaria, not philaria.
Also, I notice the spelling for cure was somewhat blurred.

Interesting that both of us have some connection/relation or other to the royal families of Travancore and Cochin. I remember seeing my maternal grandfather, during our holiday visits to Kerala. A stately gentleman, wearing the sacred thread and a gold ring on his finger.
It is unfortunate that the Kochi Thampuran (engineer) passed away at an early age.

Dad's ancestral home is still there and they also have a temple in the grounds, where the deity is Bhuvanesvari.

Hope you will read the latest post by one of those writers, cannot recall the name. It is right there today on Vijayvaani. It deals with the purported decline of the US and the West in general and the rise of Russia and China.

Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
November 02, 2021
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@Professor Nair,

Have just sent you an email. Hope it reaches you.
Vijaya
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
November 02, 2021
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