In a strategic pivot toward multipolarity, ASEAN has aligned with the Gulf Cooperation Council and China to create a new axis of trade that redefines global economic order beyond Western influence and military conflict.

The Summit

With the Western world largely busy in fuelling conflicts (against Russia) and China (in Taiwan), and Palestinians (in Gaza), the so-called ‘middle powers’ in the global hierarchy of states are taking key steps to reshape the global order from below. These powers’ behaviour is also fundamentally different from the Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs in pursuit of economic nationalism. The alternative approach’s major manifestation was the recently held (May 27, 2025) joint summit of ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and China.

Held under the leadership of Malaysia, the summit showcases how multilateral trade - defined fairly broadly - more than anything else, is being used to redefine not only national economies, e.g., of the Gulf, but also the global order as well. In the past, we saw different states competing or coming together to form regional trade blocs.

Both ASEAN and the GCC are themselves examples of such pacts. However, the latest summit saw two regional blocs coming together alongside one of the most powerful economies in the world to elevate the level of regional trade. This is a significant development for several reasons.

First, ASEAN, the GCC, and China collectively represent a market of over two billion people and a combined GDP of US$25 trillion. Second, a key reason why ASEAN and the GCC came together is that the volume of their bilateral trade is not as high as its potential. The GCC is only the 7th largest trading partner of ASEAN. The summit, however, is meant to create more opportunities to realise the actual potential. Third, while China’s economic ties are strong with both ASEAN and the GCC, the summit has allowed for transforming these ties from bilateral to trilateral at the trading blocs level.

The joint statement said that “We reaffirm our collective resolve to work hand in hand to unleash the full potential of our partnership and ensure that our cooperation translates into tangible benefits for our people and societies”. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim – whose country is currently chair of ASEAN and hosted the summit — told a press conference that the “collective scale offers vast opportunities to synergise our markets, deepen innovation, and promote cross-regional investment”. China’s Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit, said Beijing “will work with ASEAN and the GCC to strengthen the alignment of development strategies, increase macro policy coordination, and deepen collaboration on industrial specialisation”.

Targeting the US

To the extent that Washington’s trade policies are fragmenting existing frameworks all over the world, the ASEAN-GCC-China summit primarily serves to shield both China and ASEAN from the impact of tariffs and the disruption it would cause their development trajectory. The GCC stands to benefit because the bloc level trilateral deals would allow its member states access to a very large market. Through this market, the Gulf comes closer to realising its own objectives of establishing an economy that is diversified and more integrated globally rather than with the West only.

For ASEAN and China, however, finding new trading partners and geographies is crucial in the wake of how US tariffs might narrow down their access to the US market. Addressing the summit, Malaysia’s Anwar said that a closer partnership between ASEAN and the GCC states would be key to navigating the world’s current economic challenges. He later said the two sides planned to launch talks to establish a free trade area. Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Sabah added that the two blocs would continue to undertake efforts to deepen cooperation and “improve our ability to face crisis”.

To further this pattern, the summit agreed to expedite the advancement of the GCC-China Free Trade Agreement, with negotiations expected to conclude by mid-2026. They also agreed to upgrade the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to its 3.0 version. This up-gradation will incorporate digital trade, green technology collaboration, and ESG standards. The proposed development of joint industrial zones, such as a GCC-funded logistics hub in East Malaysia, would serve as a strategic maritime node connecting the Strait of Malacca to the Arabian Gulf.

While ASEAN states are also negotiating their bilateral deals with the US, they don’t have high hopes, given how the Trump administration continues to use tariffs to adjust not just trade patterns but US foreign relations as well. Still, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s conduct has forced them to innovate. This is why these states invited both GCC and China to triangulate trade and to establish a new axis in which the Western world - especially, the US - has no role to play as a partner. Unwittingly, as it stands, the US itself is pushing these changes with remarkable consequences to follow.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/06/14/how-asean-is-reshaping-world-order-from-below/