Global politics is undergoing a rapid and holistic transition since the emergence of the new multipolar world order. Over the past few years, South Asia has emerged as the chessboard of global geopolitics. Amidst this rising geopolitical significance, new alliances, centered around China, are emerging in the region.

Shifting Geopolitics in South Asia: From U.S. Pivot to Regional Realignments

The South Asian region has gained significant geopolitical and geostrategic importance in recent years. The region has long held strategic geopolitical importance. Former US President Barack Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy proved instrumental in increasing the region’s geostrategic weight. However, with the recent Pakistan-India war, and the ongoing Iran-Israel war, its geopolitical value has further enhanced and a new balance of power has been established in the region.

The rise of Russia and China as the new superpowers and leaders of the new multipolar world order has posed a significant challenge to the US-led unipolar world order. Since the era of former US President Barack Obama, the United States has been forging new regional alliances and defense partnerships to counter the growing influence of the two countries. The renewal of Quad, the establishment of AUKUS, and the United States strengthening defense ties with India are key components of its strategy to curtail the emerging multipolar world order.

U.S. Engagement Shifts from India to Pakistan

The United States has deepened defense and strategic ties with India over the past few years to counter China in the region. In May 2025, the United States approved the supply of military hardware and logistics to India, further enhancing their bilateral ties. However, the United States, known for its unreliability as an ally, seems to have abandoned India due to changing regional dynamics. In the past few weeks, a significant strain has been observed in the bilateral relations of the two countries.

US President Donald Trump seeks to be known as a peacemaker, despite his unwavering support for Israel’s war crimes in Gaza and Iran. In pursuit of this personal ambition, he has been seen admiring Pakistan. He has also flaunted his role as a mediator between India and Pakistan in their recent war. He even invited the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to an official lunch in the White House to discuss regional issues and explore the avenues for strengthening bilateral relations. This has increased the strategic significance of Pakistan, a key ally of China and India’s regional arch-rival.

In a surprising move, the United States has also issued a new travel advisory for India, asking women not to travel alone in the country due to the threat of terrorism, rape, and violence. This sudden change of the US policy towards India has posed novel threats to the latter. On the other hand, the growing influence of China and Pakistan in the region has further heightened the challenges facing New Delhi. With the fall of the Hasina Wajid government in Bangladesh, Dhaka has also altered its foreign policy outlook. Once known as the closest regional ally of India, Bangladesh is now strengthening its ties with Pakistan and China. Public support for India has also decreased in Bangladesh due to its alleged support to the corrupt Hasina Wajid regime.

China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Trilateral Summit and India’s Growing Diplomatic Challenges

In a landmark move, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh held their first-ever trilateral summit in the Chinese city of Kunming recently. Officials from the three sides pledged to strengthen their trilateral cooperation across various sectors and explore venues for joint projects in multiple areas including education, trade, maritime affairs, industry, health, culture, water resources, climate change, agriculture, think tank collaboration and youth engagement. Although the joint statement of the summit emphasizes that this alliance “is not directed at any third party” and is rooted in “true multilateralism and open regionalism”, this partnership exposes India to new regional geopolitical challenges.

China and Pakistan have always had strong bilateral relations. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) stands as a prime example of their robust bilateral ties. The effective display of Chinese military equipment and technology in the recent Pakistan-India war has further cemented their bilateral ties. China and India have a longstanding geopolitical rivalry. Pakistan is also an arch-rival of India. Therefore, the rising influence of the two countries on India’s eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, poses a direct geopolitical threat to India. China already holds considerable influence on Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Through this alliance, China has successfully circled India in the region.

On the other hand, India is significantly facing diplomatic marginalization in the region. President Trump due to his mercurial and narcissistic personality has also abandoned India in the past few weeks, putting the latter in an intricate position. However, this betrayal is nothing unusual given the United States’ history regarding its allies. Pakistan will also have to face the same fate once the US seeks its regional ambitions. Both countries must navigate their relationship with the United States with great caution.

Moreover, Indian policymakers need to acknowledge that they must strengthen their relations with regional countries. India must enhance its bilateral relations with Russia, given the latter’s unwavering support to India and its pursuit of an egalitarian and just world order. Due to its cordial relations with China and Pakistan, Moscow can help New Delhi resolve its disputes with these countries as well. Otherwise, India may find itself grappling with more complex challenges and growing diplomatic isolation in the future.

?bbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist.

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https://journal-neo.su/2025/07/09/after-the-kunming-summit-south-asias-shifting-alliances-and-indias-strategic-dilemma/