In the Transcaucasian region geopolitics determine geoeconomics. The ‘Zangezur game’ is attracting new players and creating more disagreements.

The Zangezur Corridor is not just a road

It is often geopolitics that define geoeconomics. For example, the Arab Gulf monarchies, which are rich in oil, may not have got modern oil export dividends if developed countries were not interested in exporting the necessary production technologies for oil exploration, production and refining with access to world markets.

Lesser Armenia contains 2% of the world’s copper reserves and 7% of the world’s molybdenum reserves. However, there is no complete copper production cycle in Armenia itself. In other words, Armenia does not supply final copper products to world markets, only copper plates.

One may have an abundance of a competitive commodity (such as oil and gas), but the geopolitics pursued by the authorities, which come into conflict with other major players, can cause economic opportunities to be limited, e.g. through sanctions. Thus, the raw material potential of an economy is not an indicator of the economic development of the state.

Unfortunately, international transit communications (ITCs) are not always the result of healthy economic competition and peaceful cooperation; their routes often result from complex geopolitical games and disagreements, where the economy is determined by the policies and ambitions of major players.

The Zangezur Corridor, which entered into political circulation at the suggestion of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev following the Second Karabakh War in 2020, passes through the territory of modern Armenia (the southern Syunik Province) and is approximately 49 km long. Baku considers the Zangezur Corridor the shortest route for transport links between the mainland of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan enclave.

At the same time, for security reasons, the Azerbaijani side insists on the free and uncontrolled passage of goods and passengers through the Meghri district of Zangezur. Baku has since November, 2020, been appealing to paragraph 9 of the trilateral agreement (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia) on unblocking all communications between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

There is no mention of a ‘Zangezur corridor’ in this agreement, but there is a subtext of extraterritoriality in the sense of ensuring control and security by the border troops of the Russian FSB. Azerbaijan itself grossly violated the provisions of the agreement regarding the Lachin corridor and the deportation of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh, and in the early 1990s, together with Türkiye, blocked all communications with Armenia (including the route to Nakhichevan).

Nevertheless, Yerevan agrees to open all roads for Azerbaijan and Türkiye, provided that the sovereignty and control of the internationally recognised territory of the Republic of Armenia are preserved. In 2023, Armenia launched the ‘Crossroads of Peace’ transport project. With the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the tension in Armenian-Russian relations, Yerevan is unwilling to transfer control of its communications to a third party.

Foreign actors eyeing Zangezur

The Zangezur Corridor is not so much an issue of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations as a subject of broader involvement of external players.

Iran is against the idea of a Zangezur corridor and formally supports Armenia’s position. In reality, Tehran views Zangezur and its border with Armenia as a way to secure transit for itself to Europe and Russia.

China, the initiator of the One Belt One Road project, is interested in opening the Zangezur transit route for its goods along the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Europe and Azerbaijan-Armenia-Türkiye-Europe lines.

India acknowledges the importance of Zangezur for the transit of its goods via Iran, Armenia and Georgia to Europe, as well as a counter to the Middle Corridor that benefits Türkiye, Pakistan and China.

EU countries and the UK are considering the Zangezur Corridor to link Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia. At the same time, London proceeds not only from considerations of economics and the exploitation of the rich raw materials of the Central Asian region, but also in order to implement the geopolitical Turan project to strategically cut off Russia from Iran and China. The latter is part of the plans of the British ‘Great Game’ in Asia.

Türkiye is one of the main supporters of the Zangezur Corridor, which will allow not only to get the shortest route for large-scale economic access to Azerbaijan and Central Asia, but also to implement the Turan project. In other words, this road promises Ankara not only financial dividends from the transit of goods, but also the Turkish entry into the club of world powers.

Russia is trying to maintain its geopolitical presence in the region through controlling the Zangezur road, participating in ensuring security and promoting Eurasian integration.

The United States, positioning itself as a global hegemon, cannot escape the ‘Zangezur corridor’. Given that conflicting interests of key players intersect at one point in little Armenia, Washington is trying to establish its own control over the corridor.

The issue is not being resolved, as Donald Trump has not yet clarified trade relations with China. Thus, the massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods actually nullifies the prospect of US-Chinese trade relations. China’s GDP accounts for about $700 billion in trade with the United States. If Trump closes the transit of Chinese goods to the US market, then Beijing will have to find an alternative in the EU markets.

The increase in cargo transit to Europe requires China to search for new routes, the Zangezur Corridor being one of them. It is no coincidence that China has concluded strategic partnership agreements with Iran and Azerbaijan, and also shows interest in Armenia (as evidenced by the June visit of Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan to Beijing). For the United States, the success of Chinese transit to the EU will nullify Trump’s ‘trade war’ plan.

As noted by Carnegie Politika, this is why the US administration proposed introducing an American operator to control the Zangezur Corridor. They say that, in doing so, Trump is once again demonstrating to the whole world his efforts to resolve global conflicts. In particular, the United States plans to take over the management and monitoring of cargo transit through Zangezur via its own company. This plan allegedly satisfies Azerbaijan in terms of security guarantees, preserves Armenia’s sovereignty over the route and establishes control over Turkish geopolitical ambitions.

Zangezur Corridor: a source of crisis in Russian-Azerbaijani relations

As you can see, the interests of a number of key players are intertwined in Zangezur. Azerbaijan, which was unable to militarily establish control over Zangezur in 1920, 1993 or 2020 and thus opened the way for Türkiye to Turan, is one way or another seeking the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor, betting on an alliance with Türkiye, the UK, Israel and the United States.

It seems Ilham Aliyev (like Kemal Ataturk did in Lausanne in 1923) believes that Baku has already received everything possible from Russia (billions of dollars in arms contracts, the main concession in Karabakh, business, transit etc.), and thinks that Azerbaijan’s future now lies with Türkiye and the West. Aliyev will not give up the role of connecting the West and Türkiye with Central Asia, but is also not for the North-South Corridor, which leads Russia through Iran to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, while reducing Moscow’s dependence on Türkiye’s Black Sea Straits.

Perhaps this geopolitical strategy is the hidden reason for the escalation of Azerbaijani-Russian relations, where Baku, without waiting for the results of investigations into tragic and criminal plots, finds a political element in Russia’s actions. Moscow will not carry out another special military operation in Transcaucasia, but losing the region is also not in its interests.

Alexander Svarants – Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Turkologist, expert on the Middle East. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/07/17/zangezur-and-the-transcaucasian-crisis/