With the collapse of the INF Treaty and NATO’s eastward reach, Cold War specters awaken on European soil - and Moscow prepares its answer.

As the U.S. and NATO advance missile systems eastward under the banner of defense, Russia responds with its own rearmament, lifting long-standing restraints. The latest shift is not abrupt, but the culmination of years of warnings, warnings that now echo with the sound of missiles returning to Europe. With the INF Treaty defunct and the promises of dialogue fading, the continent faces the specter of a new arms race. It will be one that is more chaotic, less restrained, and dangerously close to ignition.

From Warnings to Warheads: Putin’s Prophecy Fulfilled

For over a decade, the Kremlin has signalled that NATO’s encroachment and missile deployments would trigger a strategic rupture. That moment has arrived. Moscow had shown restraint for several years after the US withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019. Although legally freed from its obligations under the accord, Russia opted for a self-imposed moratorium, vowing not to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles unless similar US systems appeared near its borders. That condition, the Russian Foreign Ministry statement recently asserted, no longer applies.

“Since 2023, we have observed instances of US systems capable of ground-launched INF strikes being transferred to the European NATO countries for trial use during exercises that clearly have an anti-Russian slant.”

The statement also pointed to broader US and allied efforts to institutionalize deployments of such missile systems across multiple theaters. Specific examples included:

-       The deployment of the Typhon missile launcher to the Philippines under the guise of drills, with the system remaining in place even after exercises concluded;

-       Tests of the PrSM missile in Australia during 2025 exercises – with its future variants projected to exceed 1,000 km in range;

-       The planned deployment of SM-6 interceptors in Germany by 2026, launched from the same Typhon system.

Russia views these developments as “destabilizing missile buildups” that threaten its national security “at the strategic level.” The Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow will now undertake “military-technical response measures”, with the precise configuration to be determined by the Russian leadership based on inter-agency analysis and the evolving strategic environment.

Officials also referenced an earlier warning issued in June 2025, when Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that Russia’s moratorium was approaching its “logical conclusion” in light of “sensitive missile threats” being fielded by the West. Although the decision was formalized only recently, Russian officials have warned about the slow return of the Cold War missile dilemma for years. In May 2016, the Russian military and Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. deployment of an $800 million missile defense site at Deveselu Air Base in Romania - calling it a “direct threat” and an attempt to blunt Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, then-chairman of the Russian State Duma’s defense committee, was blunt: “They are moving to the firing line. This is not just 100; it’s 200, 300, 1,000 percent aimed against us.”

Even earlier, in 2008, President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would view any attempt to expand NATO to its borders as a “direct threat.” The remarks, made at the Bucharest NATO Summit, came in response to moves to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO’s fold. The Russian leader’s prophecy - that NATO expansion and U.S. missile defense in Europe would result in a crisis - now appears grimly fulfilled.

A New Arms Race, By Design

As the West installs “defensive” systems with offensive capacity, Russia abandons restraint - and the missile clock begins ticking once more. Russian military analysts argue that the United States’ creation of Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs) and the deployment of containerized missile launchers like the Typhon system have erased the distinction between defense and offense. Systems like the Tomahawk and PrSM, now tested or based in Asia and Europe, are perceived as precision strike threats.

Ilya Kramnik of the Russian Academy of Sciences notes that Russia’s restraint became obsolete years ago. “The military-technical reality has changed,” he said. “The political gesture now simply reflects that shift.”

Russia’s response will likely include the deployment of the new Oreshnik missile system - a modern successor to the Soviet-era SS-20 Pioneer - alongside updated Kalibr, Tsirkon, and Iskander variants. Experts predict deployments in Belarus and across key regions of Russia, including areas within reach of European and NATO targets.

Strategically, this marks a doctrinal shift. Russia is integrating intermediate- and shorter-range systems across multiple branches, from the Ground Forces to coastal navy units and the VDV. These will include hypersonic and precision-strike platforms capable of targeting air defense systems, infrastructure, and command centers.

In the European theatre, this could reintroduce the type of security dilemma last seen in the 1980s, but this time without the arms control guardrails that helped end the Cold War missile standoff. Now, the path to a renewed INF-style treaty appears remote. Dmitry Stefanovich of Watfor offered this:

“We are at the beginning of a multi-directional arms race. This is a missile renaissance, driven not by ambition but by necessity.”

Despite faint calls for renewed diplomacy, the geopolitical weather is turning cold once more. And once again, Europe finds itself caught in the middle of may be our planet’s worst catastrophe.

Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/08/10/missiles-return-to-europe-how-natos-advances-reignited-russias-red-lines/