The recent military conflict between Iran on one side and the U.S. and Israel on the other was not just another episode in the series of Middle Eastern confrontations.

This event marked the beginning of an entirely new stage in regional politics, as the Arab states of the Persian Gulf have finally realized the impossibility of relying on external security guarantees. Instead of the old model based on their support from Western allies, they must now form their own regional order, in which Iran will play a key role.

This conflict clearly demonstrated that neither the U.S. nor its European partners are capable or willing to ensure real stability in the region. Military bases, air defense systems, and diplomatic declarations proved ineffective in the face of direct confrontation. In this context, the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the Sultanate of Oman - face a difficult but inevitable task: to create a new security system based not on confrontation but on cooperation involving all regional actors.

The Collapse of the Old Paradigm: Why External Guarantees No Longer Work

Dependence on the West is a myth dispelled by war. For decades, security in the Persian Gulf rested on two fundamental principles. The first was the military presence of the U.S. and its allies, which included a network of military bases, supplies of modern weapons, and regular joint exercises. The second key element was the policy of containing Iran through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and constant military pressure.

However, the recent conflict clearly exposed the limitations of this model. Neither American bases nor deployed air defense systems could prevent Iran’s large-scale missile strikes. A telling example was the attack on the strategically important Al-Udeid base in Qatar, where U.S. troops are stationed. This episode proved that even the most heavily fortified facilities remain vulnerable to modern missile technology.

The current situation leads to an unambiguous conclusion: no external power is willing to sacrifice its strategic interests to ensure the security of the Arab states. Recent U.S. policy, including the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the indecisive response to attacks on Saudi oil facilities, only confirms this thesis.

Attempts to marginalize Iran or exclude it from regional processes have clearly failed. During the recent conflict, Tehran demonstrated its military-technical capabilities, including the development of precision missile technology, the ability to mount an asymmetric response through proxy groups, and significant influence over key regional conflicts from Yemen to Syria.

These factors make it impossible to build a sustainable security system without Iran’s participation. The policy of isolation and sanctions pressure, actively promoted by the West over the past decade, has not only failed to achieve its desired results but has also fuelled radical sentiments in Tehran. In contrast, the path of dialogue and gradual normalization of relations opens prospects for a more stable regional architecture.

The New Reality: From Confrontation to Pragmatic Cooperation

A few years ago, the foreign policy of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi was built on the principle of hardline confrontation with Iran. Saudi Arabia actively supported anti-Iran sanctions, participated in the Yemen conflict as an opponent of the Tehran-backed Houthis, and the UAE developed a strategic partnership with Israel, seeing it as a counterbalance to Iranian influence.

However, in recent years, a noticeable adjustment in this course has taken place. Saudi Arabia, with China’s mediation, restored diplomatic relations with Tehran, marking a turning point in regional politics. The UAE, despite remaining political disagreements, has actively expanded economic ties with Iran, including trade and investment cooperation.

These changes reflect not weakness but the strategic calculus of these countries’ leadership. It has become clear that security based solely on Western-backed confrontation leads only to perpetual escalation and growing unpredictability. In contrast, pragmatic engagement, even with an ideological adversary, creates the preconditions for long-term stability.

First Steps Toward a Regional Security System

Today, Gulf expert and diplomatic circles are actively discussing cooperation mechanisms that until recently seemed impossible. One key direction is the creation of joint early warning systems that would allow regional countries to exchange real-time data on missile threats.

Another important aspect is coordination in air defense. This does not mean a unified system - which remains politically unfeasible for now - but mechanisms for timely threat interception. Finally, establishing permanent diplomatic platforms for consultations could serve as an effective tool for preventing crises before they escalate into armed clashes.

A significant step in this direction was the official visit of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman to Tehran. According to official Iranian sources, the talks focused on deepening defense cooperation, strengthening regional stability, and coordinating counterterrorism efforts - areas in which Tehran and Riyadh, after years of confrontation, are increasingly converging, recognizing shared interests.

Since the restoration of diplomatic ties in 2023 through China’s mediation and after months of quiet backchannel diplomacy, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been cautiously but purposefully moving closer. Khalid bin Salman’s trip marked the second high-level military engagement since the resumption of relations, following last year’s visit by Saudi Arabia’s chief of staff to Tehran.

In a geopolitical environment marked by persistent instability - from Yemen to the Levant - and the entrenched presence of external powers like the U.S., dialogue between Tehran and Riyadh is increasingly seen as a necessary stabilizing force. From Iran’s perspective, regional security can only be achieved through intra-regional cooperation, free from external interference and shifting priorities. Tehran continues to advocate for regional solutions based on sovereignty, mutual respect, and the rejection of foreign military intervention.

It is important to understand that such initiatives do not mean the immediate disappearance of deep-seated disagreements between Gulf states and Iran. However, they reflect a significant shift in regional thinking, where pragmatism is gradually prevailing over ideological contradictions.

The End of the Era of American Influence

The U.S. is not a protector but a source of instability. The U.S. role in the recent conflict provided further evidence to regional states of the limitations of American guarantees. Washington not only failed to prevent escalation but, through its actions, effectively provoked it by unconditionally supporting Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

The facts speak for themselves: despite the presence of U.S. bases, they could not stop Iranian missiles; U.S. diplomacy proved incapable of preventing the crisis from spiralling; and Washington’s entire policy was subordinated to Israel’s interests, not the needs of its Arab allies.

The experience of recent years has led regional leaders to several key conclusions. First, U.S. security guarantees have proven unreliable and subject to shifts in American domestic politics. Second, Washington is unwilling to take serious risks to protect its Arab partners’ interests in the Persian Gulf. Third, excessive dependence on the U.S. creates its own threats, limiting regional countries’ sovereignty in making critical decisions.

These conclusions lead to a fundamentally important realization: only regional solutions, developed by the Persian Gulf states themselves, can ensure real and sustainable security.

A New Architecture - With Iran, Not Against It

The emerging regional security system will be based on several key principles. First, the rejection of Tehran’s isolation and the recognition that Iran will remain a key regional player regardless of external pressure. Second, the creation of specialized regional structures - similar to OPEC but in the security sphere - to coordinate actions among different countries. Third, the diversification of external partnerships, involving actors like China, Russia, and India, to avoid dangerous dependence on a single power.

The Persian Gulf states face a historic choice. Continuing the old policy of reliance on Western guarantees leads to perpetual instability, as external players have no interest in genuine regional conflict resolution. The alternative is the difficult but necessary path of creating their own security system, where Iran is not an external threat but part of a balanced regional architecture.

The future of the region now depends on several key factors. First, the ability of Arab states and Iran to find a format for dialogue and gradual resolution of accumulated disputes. Second, the willingness to invest not only in national but also in joint defense systems that could form the basis of collective security. Third, the final abandonment of illusions about the role of external protectors and a shift toward truly sovereign regional policy.

This path will inevitably be difficult and require significant political compromises. However, the alternative - perpetual instability and the risk of large-scale conflict - makes this choice not a preference but a necessity. The region stands on the threshold of a new era, where security must either be shared or it will not exist at all.

Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Middle East Expert. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/08/11/the-arab-states-of-the-persian-gulf-and-iran-are-building-a-new-security-architecture/