Israel’s unprecedented strike on Hamas leadership in Doha signals not only a violation of Qatari sovereignty, but also a warning to Gulf states that no regional power center will be tolerated if it challenges Tel Aviv’s expanding agenda.

Putting Gulf states to shame, Israel’s attack on Qatar indicates the scale of its ambitions for the Middle East: it cannot tolerate any alternative power centre(s), be it Hamas or any sovereign state. The attack has put every Gulf state on Israel’s radar - something that could put the Netanyahu regime in the perfect position to push for its ultimate objective: total occupation of Gaza and the West Bank.

The Attack

On September 9, 2025, the world quietly crossed a new geopolitical threshold. In a move that stunned even seasoned observers of Middle Eastern conflict, Israeli forces, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, launched a targeted strike on Hamas leadership residing in Doha - a flagrant violation of Qatari sovereignty, carried out deep within the territory of a US ally hosting one of the largest military bases in the region.

Though the Hamas leadership reportedly survived the attack, the real target was not flesh and blood. It was political theatre, and the message it delivered was as unmistakable as it was brazen: Israeli military reach now knows no geographic, diplomatic, or legal limits. Even US-aligned Gulf monarchies are no longer off-limits when Jerusalem deems a strike “necessary.”

Qatar, along with several other Gulf states, issued immediate condemnations. But the damage - symbolic and strategic - had already been done. The Netanyahu government was able to publicly demonstrate that its doctrine of extraterritorial aggression would not be constrained by traditional norms of state sovereignty, international law, or even the preferences of Washington’s closest Arab partners.

This audacious strike came mere hours after the Israeli military distributed evacuation orders to residents of Gaza - a chilling precursor to another round of bombardment. On Tuesday morning, Gazans woke not to the sound of drones or fighter jets, but to the soft flutter of leaflets urging civilians to abandon their homes, so the military could “cleanse” the area of Hamas resistance.

The timing of the attack in Qatar is, therefore, no coincidence. This was a coordinated escalation, a synchronized message from Netanyahu’s cabinet to the world: the project of Greater Israel - the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank - is no longer a theoretical ambition. It is a military roadmap.

And what about Washington? Notably, no US air defense systems were activated during the Doha strike - a curious anomaly, given their usual hypersensitivity, especially after Iran’s prior attacks on American installations. The absence of a US military response raises unsettling questions: was this silence an oversight, a calculated decision, or tacit approval?

Either way, the implications are deeply profound. For decades, Israel has acted with impunity across the region, but always with a degree of plausible deniability or strategic ambiguity. Not anymore. This was not ambiguity. This was bold, unrestrained power projection, aimed not just at Hamas, but at all who would dare to challenge Israel’s unfolding regional agenda, either via military means (as did Iran) or via diplomatic means (as Qatar has been doing for the past two years). It basically means that any country, especially in the Middle East, opposing Israeli plans can face its military wrath - something that directly sent a red notice to countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, forcing them to reassess the cost of allying too closely with Israel and leaving them wondering whether the so-called Abraham Accords still hold any meaningful relevance.

How the attack could backfire

The precision and audacity of the attack demonstrated Israel’s far-reaching military capabilities. However, while the operation may have achieved its tactical goal, its broader consequences risk backfiring - not only for Israel, but also for the US. At the heart of this geopolitical ripple lies a troubling question for Gulf capitals: What does the US military presence in the region actually guarantee?

The fact that American-managed air defense systems failed - or declined - to intercept the Israeli strike on Qatari soil has not gone unnoticed. It reinforces a growing perception that US security guarantees in the Gulf are selective, activated only when threats originate from Iran or Iran-backed groups. In this light, the attack raises an uncomfortable truth: American bases in the region are not designed to protect Arab states from all threats - only from those Washington chooses to oppose. This equation leaves Gulf states critically vulnerable and weak.

This realization must prompt serious rethinking, especially in Riyadh, where defense guarantees from the US are being actively negotiated as part of a potential normalization deal with Israel. The events in Doha offer a stark warning: even formal guarantees may be applied through a deeply politicized lens.

But beyond exposing the limits of US protection, the Israeli attack presents a more immediate political challenge for Gulf states. Should they now abandon their long-standing - albeit largely symbolic - support for a two-state solution? Should they acquiesce to Israel’s expanding regional agenda and accept that the occupation of Gaza and the West Bank is no longer temporary, but permanent?

Just this past July, Saudi Arabia co-hosted a conference at the United Nations with France to reaffirm support for a two-state solution. Yet, Israel’s actions - from the military campaign in Gaza to the assassination attempt in Qatar - show no appetite for such outcomes. On the contrary, these moves reflect a commitment to neutralizing Palestinian political leadership altogether, wherever it may be found.

For Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, this is no longer a theoretical debate. It is a test of credibility - and more fundamentally - of legitimacy. To remain silent or passive in the face of such overt escalation is to risk endorsing, through inaction, the idea that Arab sovereignty is negotiable, and Palestinian statehood is irrelevant.

Symbolic condemnations will not suffice. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League must pivot from rhetoric to action. That means considering serious steps - including the diversification of security partnerships. Defence dialogue with rising powers like Russia, China, and Turkey should no longer be off the table, as continued overdependence on the US is proving strategically untenable and even costly. It was only few months ago when Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia had promised to invest more than 1 trillion USD in the US. This was meant to appease the Trump administration and keep their defence ties alive. But the scenario has now totally changed, so should Gulf state’s strategic calculus.

Arab states must invest in independent defense capabilities to ensure their sovereignty is not subject to external veto. If they fail to act now, the message will be unmistakable: Israel can act with impunity, and the region will simply adjust. This is not just about Palestine. It is about power, deterrence, and the future of Arab decision-making in a rapidly shifting global landscape. Israel has made its move. Now the Gulf must decide whether to fold or carefully play its hand.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/09/10/gulf-on-the-edge-what-israel-wants-in-the-middle-east/