In a quiet but calculated pivot, the United States is setting its sights on Central Asia once again—not just to loosen Russia’s stranglehold on global oil, but also to redraw the strategic map linking East and West.

By deepening ties with regional players, including through a strengthened partnership with Israel, Washington hopes to hem in Moscow and Beijing.

Pivot to Central Asia

Under President Trump’s renewed tenure, Washington is steadily reasserting its presence in Central Asia and its surrounding regions - an area long overlooked in recent US foreign policy. At the heart of this re-engagement is a significant infrastructure project in Armenia: a bridge already being dubbed the “Trump Bridge.” Backed by US funding and poised to transform regional connectivity, the project reflects more than symbolic investment; it signals a strategic recalibration.

For many within the Trump administration, the previous US disengagement from this part of the world was a costly mistake. The administration’s supporters now view this renewed push as correcting course, beginning with the facilitation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan - a conflict that has long destabilized the South Caucasus. While fragile, the agreement has positioned Washington not only as a mediator but increasingly as a power balancer in the region.

The Trump Bridge, slated for completion by 2028, represents more than a physical crossing. It is a statement of intent. Once operational, it is expected to open trade routes that bypass traditional corridors through Russia and Iran, positioning Armenia as a strategic hub in a new north–south transport network. This alignment directly competes with China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s North–South Transport Corridor, signalling Washington’s ambition to challenge its geopolitical rivals through economic infrastructure.

However, the bridge may not be the culmination of Washington’s re-engagement, it may be just the beginning. There are signs that the Trump administration seeks to overhaul the outdated economic frameworks that have long governed US interaction with post-Soviet states. During Senator Marco Rubio’s January 2025 confirmation hearings - where he was nominated for Secretary of State - he was pressed on the administration’s approach to Central Asia.

Rubio responded by labelling the Jackson-Vanik Amendment - Cold War-era legislation that still hinders permanent normalized trade relations with several Central Asian countries - an “absurd relic of the past.” His remarks suggest momentum within Washington to modernize economic policy in line with its evolving strategic goals. In December 2024, Uzbekistan signed a deal with the US to support Tashkent’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The country is steadily opening to foreign investment, and it sees US companies as essential to developing the country’s fast-growing economy.

Beyond trade, the US is also looking to leverage economic ties to recalibrate Central Asian States’ ties with the West overall. As reports in the mainstream western media indicate, the Trump administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian States to sign Abraham Accords to normalize ties with Israel.

While Central Asian States already have established ties with Israel since 1992, their participation in the accords is only meant to cement deeper military and economic cooperation in ways that would, from Washington’s perspective, diminish regional states’ ties with Russia (and China, which has in recent years expanded its footprint massively. In 2024, China’s bilateral trade with the five Central Asia States stood at almost US$100 billion, up from almost US$43 billion in 2013).

The US, therefore, seeks to push back. The Central Asia States hold large reserves of oil and gas. By helping them reroute this source to Europe, Washington aims to achieve one of Trump’s stated goals, i.e., to loosen the Russian grip on global energy supplies. This objective is also at the centre of Washington’s ongoing trade war with India and its demand for bringing Indian purchase of Russian oil to a complete halt.

In addition, in its ongoing trade war with China, Washington is also seeking access to the Central Asia States’ mineral resources. In 2018, Trump signed a $1 billion memorandum of understanding with Kazakhstan and Ukraine to develop alternative rare earth partnerships. That framework is now being revived. Kazakhstan holds an estimated 20 million metric tons of rare earth reserves, ranking third globally. Uzbekistan is expanding its lithium sector to meet battery demand.

The Risk

While Washington may tout renewed interest in Central Asia as a strategic pivot, regional leaders have little reason to celebrate. The Trump administration’s foreign policy - erratic, transactional, and often unmoored from long-term strategy - poses more risks than rewards for states that have carefully cultivated a multi-vector foreign policy. For countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and their neighbours, diplomatic survival hinges on balancing relations with multiple global powers, not in throwing in their lot with an unpredictable White House.

Moreover, Trump’s revisionist stance on international norms should give Central Asian capitals pause. From musings about “reclaiming” the Panama Canal to suggesting the US should purchase Greenland - or even absorb Canada - his rhetoric reflects a deeper disregard for the post-WWII international order built on respect for sovereignty and non-interference.

The volatility of US foreign policy further complicates the picture. Successive administrations in Washington have reversed courses on major global issues - from trade agreements to military alliances - revealing a lack of institutional commitment to consistent strategy. Central Asia is not immune to this churn. Without bipartisan support and long-term investment from the US, any diplomatic gains with Washington may prove fleeting. In short, Central Asian states would be wise to approach Trump-era overtures with caution. In a region where stability depends on careful calibration of external ties, getting too close to an unpredictable power could tilt the balance in dangerous directions.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/09/09/a-bridge-to-influence-washingtons-quiet-return-to-central-asia/