Russia as the phoenix in global politics

After the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia became a less popular area of study as compared to the period 1949-1991. In the West, it was believed that Russia was “finished” as Moscow was no longer the capital of a great power (USSR). Western policymakers thought that Russia would remain irrelevant as an economic and political power in global politics, and, many universities’ studies programs on Russia in the US and Western Europe were either canceled or downsized.

However, those who believed that Russia was “irrelevant” in global politics since the end of the Cold War realized their mistake at least from the 2008 Russo-Georgian War [1]. Subsequently, Washington and Brussels declared a new Cold War (2.0) on Russia in 2008 [2] as they understood that Russia is back as a military, economic, and political great power. The Collective West, especially (and led by) the US, made a critical experiment of provoking Russia on the international stage. The second fatal experiment of challenging Russia was on the soil of (Soviet) Ukraine from 2014 to 2022, when Russia launched a Special Military Operation (SMO) against the Russofrenic neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, backed by the Collective West since the 2014 EuroMaidan coup, in February 2022.

Russia, as a country with tremendous energy resources, nuclear power, educated and talented people, cannot be ignored in global politics by the Collective West, as it did from 1991-2008. Since 2008, Russia has been pursuing its national interests and security near its borders (within the space of the ex-USSR). The Special Military Operation in Eastern (Soviet) Ukraine populated by Russian speakers showed the Global West that Russia is once again a top global power and cannot be ignored anymore.      

Transformation of post-Soviet Russia into a Great Power

From 1991, Russia transformed its political and economic system, peacefully and rapidly. In 1991, Russia was only one of its 15 constituent republics, which proclaimed independence. The 1990s were painful for Russia’s position in international relations as its foreign policy was, in fact, supervised and directed by Washington and Brussels as the NATO aggression on Serbia and Montenegro in 1999 showed. But since 2008, Russia’s foreign policy once again became an independent and it gradually returned to the club of the Great Powers. [3] Russia fits the conventionally accepted criteria that define a Great Power:

1)     A Great Power state is in the first rank of military capacity.

2)    A Great Power state has the capacity to maintain its own security and to influence other states on how to behave.

3)    A Great Power state is economically powerful, although this is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for membership in the Great Power club (Japan or Germany).

4)    A Great Power state has global but not only regional spheres of national interest and action.

5)    A Great Power state is running a “forward” foreign policy and has a real influence on international relations and global (world) politics. [4]

6)    A Great Power is a state (at least according to the 18^th-century concept) that could not be conquered even by the combined might of other Great Powers. [5]

Russia belongs to the club of key global powers having powerful nuclear weapons, a growing economy, and prospective economic capacities, and as one of the leading BRICS members. Moreover, Russia possesses almost endless natural resources (many probably still not discovered). In September 2025, the Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia has reserves of coal for the next one thousand years. From a geopolitical view, Russia occupies the crucial segment of the Heartland. [6]

The six factors of Russian power

The contemporary history of Russia starts after the dissolution of the USSR by Mikhail Gorbachev (according to the agreement with Ronald Reagan in Reykjavík in October 1986), [7] which marked the beginning of political and economic turmoil in the 1990s, when Russia under Boris Yeltsin and his pro-Western liberals was a puppet state of the Collective West. However, it gradually emerged from the period of instability around 2000 mainly due to six factors, which the administration of President Vladimir Putin skilfully exploited to the full extent:

1)     Substantial mineral resources, particularly oil, gas, and coal.

2)    Significant military power, based on the second greatest nuclear potential in the world.

3)    Relatively well-educated, productive segment of the population.

4)    A high-quality scientific and technological base that survived in several industries.

5)    Permanent membership in the UNSC, the G8, and the G20 [later expelled from G8-ed].

6)    Important political and economic influence on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

Russia will remain an important actor along with the US, EU, China, and the rising Islamic cultures of Iran and Turkey. Russia’s natural resources and capabilities may allow it to follow an independent line in the post-Soviet regions and key areas like Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Its interests may clash with those of the US and its European clients.

The World Systems Theory conceptualizes world order as (1) A rich and developed core, (2) Poor and underdeveloped periphery, and (3) A number of intermediary or semi-peripheral states. Russia will improve its position within the first group, which includes all nations who after the 2025 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization follow the principle of Balance of Power, ie, collaborate to maintain their interests against threats from those who seek systemic dominance.

Why study and respect Russia?

There are at least four important reasons to study and respect Russia’s importance in global politics:

1.    Geopolitical position and size of country: Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching over 17 million sq. km and covering 11 time zones. It borders the Baltic Sea in the west, the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in the south, the Arctic Ocean in the north, and the Pacific Ocean in the east. Russia is both a European and Asian country, and occupies a crucial geopolitical position at the core of the Heartland. Russia shares borders with six NATO member states (Poland, Norway, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Latvia), faces a seventh across the Black Sea (Turkey), and is geographically separated by the 85-km wide Bering Strait from the US (also a member of NATO). Russia borders 16 internationally recognized states, the largest number of neighbours for one country. Anything happening in Eurasia from Central Europe to Japan affects Russia to a certain extent and Moscow has to react to that. [8]

2.   Regional power: Russia is a regional power within the perimeter of Heartland, and after 2000, succeeded in developing independent policies toward other states, including NATO and the EU. The “problems” with Russia started when its foreign policy did not conform to the strategic interests of the US and its European clients, NATO and the EU. To the dismay of Washington and Brussels, Russia maintains friendly relations with three main American competitors – North Korea, China, and Iran. The most “problematic” issue for Washington is that Moscow is continuing to build multi-state economic and political coalitions with neighbouring countries, including China, Iran and India. Russia, China, and India are founders of the BRICS, with Brazil and South Africa, and several newly accepted member states. [9] The Collective West finally 2008 recognized Russia’s claim to have “privileged interests” within the post-Soviet territories, except in those countries that joined the EU and NATO before (the Baltic States). [10]      

3.   Military power: To the disappointment of the Pentagon and Brussels, Russia remains a strong military state with stable economic growth, military and nuclear capacity. Even after Cold War 1.0, when American imperialism was in full bloom till 2008, Moscow continued with its security policy of having strong military capacities. Historically, after NATO’s establishment in 1949, Russia’s survival, independence, and sovereignty depended on its military power, especially nuclear power. [11] Russia (as USSR) began producing nuclear weapons in 1949 and reached parity with the US at the beginning of the 1970s. Russia today maintains a nuclear arsenal and delivery systems comparable to that of the US. [12] The US’ policy of open hostility after the end of the Cold War 1.0, views Russia as an enemy. Hence Russia seeks new reliable policies of common security based on justice, democracy, and friendship –founded on the form of balancing power among the Great Powers.  

4.   Economic power: Russia has a growing economy index higher than many Western countries. With a population of 142 million, it is one of the ten most populous states in the world with a GDP per annum among the world’s top 10 economies. In 2007, the private sector, with 5 million private enterprises, contributed 65% of Russia’s GDP. Russia is likely to continue with its economic growth, regardless of the harsh economic and other sanctions imposed by the Collective West since 2022. The main source of revenue (80%) is the exploitation and sale of natural resources, followed by a wide range of different industries. The most important Russian export of natural resources is oil, gas, coal, timber, and metals. Russia has 23% of the total world’s forested land [13] and is 8th in oil reserves (first being Venezuela). After 2000, Russia became one of the biggest world’s energy suppliers and among the top three exporter of weapons. It is near the Arctic’s gas and oil reserves, which will mainly be under Russian exploitation.

Current reality of Russo-Western relations in IR

Russia’s policy after 2000 is crucial in understanding its place in Eurasia and the world (BRICS+). The policymakers of the Collective West understood this only after Russia’s military intervention in the Caucasus in August 2008, which was intended to demonstrate that further incorporation of areas of special interest to Moscow into the Western client zone was totally unacceptable. The Western policymakers also understood was that this intervention was a counterpunch to Western-sponsored Kosovo’s proclamation of “independence” in February 2008. 

Thus, Russia is a strong economic and military power, a rich energy producer and supplier, an extremely important player in global politics, and is still building its position in the Cold War 2.0 era. It will be one of the crucial players in international affairs. However, up to 2022, Russia’s geopolitics was forced to accommodate the behaviour of NATO. [14] Since February 2022, when the SMO against Ukraine began, NATO and the rest of the Collective West have been forced to accommodate their politics to Russian behaviour.

Notes

[1] On this war, at least from the Western perspective, see in [Roger E. Kanet (ed.), Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, 101-178].

[2] Edward Lucas, The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West, London-New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.

[3] Andrew Heywood, Global Politics, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, 7.

[4] About world politics, see in [Jeffrey Haynes et al, World Politics, New York: Routledge, 2013].

[5] Richard W. Mansbach, Karsten L. Taylor, Introduction to Global Politics, Second Edition, London-New York: Routledge, 2012, 578.

[6] About geography and history, see in [Halford John Mackinder, “The Geographical Pivot of History”, The Geographical Journal, 23, 1904, 421-437; Pascal Venier, „The Geographical Pivot of History and Early 20th Century Geopolitical Culture“, Geographical Journal, 170 (4), 2004, 330-336].

[7] About R. Reagan and M. Gorbachev’s relations, see in [Jack F. Matlock Jr., Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended, New York, Random House, 2005].

[8] On Eurasia and Great Powers, see in [Roger E. Kanet, Maria Raquel Freire (eds.), Key Players and Regional Dynamics in Eurasia: The Return of the Great Game, Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010].

[9] The BRICS is an acronym first used by the investment firm Goldman Sachs in 2003 (as the BRIC). Taking their rapid economic development, Goldman Sachs predicted that these economies are going to be wealthier by 2050 than the world’s current economic powers.

[10] About the foreign policy of Russia in the 21st century from the Western perspective, see in [Robert Legvold (ed.), Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century and the Shadow of the Past, New York: Columbia University Press, 2007; Roger E. Kanet (ed.), Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011].

[11] About this issue, see in [Richard Pipes, Survival is not Enough: Soviet Realities and America’s Future, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1984].

[12] Robert Legvold, “The Russian File: How to Move Toward a Strategic Partnership”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, 78-93.

[13] World Resource Institute: www.globalforestwatch.org/english/russia (2009).

[14] About the post-Cold War 1.0 geopolitics of Russia, see in [????? ???????, ???? ??????????? ??????, ???????: ?????? ?????? „???????“, 2015]. About the new Cold War 2.0, see in [Robert Legvold, Return to Cold War, Cambridge, UK-Malden, MA: Polity Press, 2016].