The recent engagement between the United States and the Taliban government and the following developments have raised significant suspicions about the future geostrategic landscape of the region.

U.S.-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-Taliban Era

The relations between the United States and Afghanistan have been intense since the return of the Taliban to power. Both sides fought for around 2 decades in Afghanistan in the so-called “War on Terror.” This war concluded with a peace agreement in 2021, leading to the Taliban’s return to Kabul. The US government imposed sanctions on the Taliban government, exacerbating the humanitarian and economic crisis of the country. Since then, the Taliban government has been struggling to gain international recognition. However, so far, only Moscow has recognized the Afghan Taliban as the legitimate power in the country and has officially established diplomatic relations with it.

Amidst the changing global geopolitical and geostrategic landscape, the United States has altered its regional outlook. Recently, a US delegation visited Kabul to discuss the release of the US prisoners. In the past, the Taliban swiftly complied with all such US demands. However, this time they seek some favours in return. Although the delegation sought the release of a US prisoner, this visit holds a great diplomatic significance for the Afghan government, which is anxiously seeking international recognition. Apparently, the Taliban officials presented their demands to the US delegation in return for the latter’s request to release the US prisoners.

Bagram Airbase: A Strategic Flashpoint

However, US President Donald Trump seeks the Bagram airbase in return for the alleged demands of the Taliban administration. While talking about the Bagram base, he stated, “We’re trying to get it back because they need things from us. We want that base back.” He further stated, “But one of the reasons we want the base is, as you know, it’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”

This illustrates the Trump administration’s intention behind its push for regaining access to the Bagram base. The Trump administration once again seeks the presence of the US troops in Afghanistan to support the US surveillance and intelligence networks in the region. It also indicates that preliminary talks have taken place between the two sides regarding a potential U.S. military reoccupation of the Bagram airbase.

The Bagram airbase is at a distance of merely 1200 miles from China’s Lop Nur nuclear testing range and missile base. According to the US Air Force, “The airfield has an 11,800-foot [3,597 m] runway capable of serving bomber and large cargo aircraft.” This shows the vitality of this base for the United States and also its appalling impacts on China. This proximity of the Bagram airbase to China’s critical military sites will provide the United States with significant regional leverage if the Taliban government accepts its demand. Moreover, it could easily target China in case of any conflict from this base. In addition, the US presence in the region will further strengthen the support for Taiwan and the latter’s resistance against China.

Regional Implications and the Risk of Escalation

The US military presence in the region will be equally detrimental to the interests of other regional countries. Washington could use this base as a launching pad for its intelligence network in the region. Moreover, it can use this base to support its regional proxies. The US access to the Bagram base will also threaten Russian interests in the region.

Furthermore, the US presence in the region will also prove pernicious to Iranian sovereignty and security. The United States recently attacked Iranian nuclear sites. The presence of the US bombers and military personnel in Bagram will further increase the chances of US involvement in any future Iran-Israel war to protect its regional proxy.

Recent developments demonstrate that the two sides have discussed the Bagram issue. However, the Afghan Taliban are not ready to hand over the airbase to the United States, which has targeted the Taliban and Afghan citizens for almost two decades. Afghanistan’s domestic political atmosphere does not allow the Taliban government to accept this demand. However, the burgeoning economic and humanitarian catastrophe in the country could force the Taliban government to accept the US demand.

Moreover, the United States could also use military options to invade the Bagram airbase. For this purpose, the US is allegedly consulting the Pakistani government. US President Donald Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a meeting at the White House on September 25. Although there has been no mention of the Bagram airbase issue in the official announcement of the discussions held in the meeting, it is alleged that the Trump administration is seeking Pakistani cooperation for the United States’ takeover of the airbase.

The US military presence in Afghanistan is significantly detrimental to Pakistan and could lead the country back to the early 2000s situation. This will also result in a sharp increase in terrorist activities in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s relations with regional countries will also deteriorate in the case of its cooperation with the United States on this issue. In addition, the US must also acknowledge that any military adventure in the region, especially in Afghanistan, will prove a nightmare for the Pentagon and could also lead to a broader regional war, given the current regional geopolitical and geostrategic developments.

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/09/29/the-bagram-factor-u-s-ambitions-and-regional-fallout/