On October 21, Sanae Takaichi became Prime Minister of Japan after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formed a new alliance with Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), a centrist party with roots in Osaka.

The new coalition fell just a few votes short of a Diet majority, but the opposition once again failed to unite against the LDP, whose president received 237 of the 465 votes. The dynamic of the previous coalition, comprising the LDP and the center-left and pacifist Komeito, was that Komeito partially curbed the LDP’s right-wing ambitions to remilitarize Japan, while also promoting social welfare measures and advocating for tax cuts. However, Komeito objected to the LDP’s inaction regarding political funds and the resolution of scandals surrounding them, and withdrew from the coalition.

In response, Sanae Takaichi attempted to find a more accommodating ally that would be less constraining to the LDP while still being popular with the electorate. Recently published statements by both parties allow us to better assess the prospects of a new alliance, which will be discussed in this article.

A Brief Introduction to the Ishin No Kai

The Ishin No Kai is a party formed in 2015 in Osaka following a split in the old Innovation Party. The Ishin No Kai is often described as a right-wing conservative party. However, in a number of positions, it leans more toward the left, and its commitment to reform and change (many of which will be completely alien to Japan) casts doubt on its label as a conservative force.

The party embraces neoliberal ideas, which would typically be considered right-leaning; however, it does so in a rather peculiar manner. The Ishin no Kai advocates free markets and competition, which should strive to create a changing hierarchical environment where the most effective actors win and reap the benefits. At the same time, the party advocates for active social support and the creation of equal conditions for all segments of the population, particularly through a review of the healthcare and pension systems, as well as increasing access to all levels of the education system. The presence of these left-leaning intentions in the neoliberal narrative is explained by the party’s plans to implement them through the privatization of state institutions in the relevant areas.

Furthermore, neoliberalism (at least in Japan) is often associated with support for globalization and multiculturalism. The Ishin no Kai, recognizing the loss of popularity of such positions, partially opposes them, particularly by publicly voicing anti-immigrant statements. The central idea of ??the party is decentralization. Hailing from Osaka, the Ishin no Kai seeks to strengthen the powers and capabilities of its home city and shift the center of decision-making from Tokyo to the regions.

In many ways, the Ishin No Kai’s ideals are similar to those of the Junichiro Koizumi administration, which conducted neoliberal experiments from 2001 to 2006. At least, with the exception that the party actively promotes measures to support the population and advocates for transparent politics. This set of views and positions allows the Ishin No Kai to be characterized as a neoliberal, centrist, and populist political group.

LDP-Ishin No Kai Coalition Agreement: Policy Changes and Causes for Concern

On October 20, the LDP and Ishin No Kai signed an agreement to form a coalition government. Many provisions of this document make it clear why the LDP chose to form a coalition with the Ishin No Kai.

The Ishin No Kai aligns with the LDP on issues of increasing Japan’s defense potential. Therefore, in their agreement, the parties outlined plans to organize the development and deployment of long-range missiles with counterattack capabilities; the deployment of submarines equipped with vertical launch systems and long-range missiles; the lifting of several restrictions imposed by the rules governing the overseas transfer of military products; and the implementation of reforms to improve the effectiveness and attractiveness of the Japan Self-Defense Forces.

Furthermore, the Ishin no Kai seeks to amend the Japanese Constitution, and some of its proposals have also found support among the LDP. Specifically, the parties agreed to establish advisory bodies to discuss Article 9 of the Constitution (both parties seek a clear definition of the Self-Defense Forces), as well as the so-called emergency provisions, which would grant the government greater powers in the event of a major crisis and allow it to remain in power longer without dissolution.

At the same time, the LDP refused to make a number of concessions regarding the constitutional issue. For example, the Ishin no Kai seeks to include provisions for free education for all, regardless of income, in the country’s basic law, as well as to emphasize the country’s policy of decentralizing state power. As is evident from the coalition agreement, the LDP did not agree to discuss the inclusion of these issues in the Constitution, but acknowledged their importance, stating, in particular, the intention to make high school free and to develop a “backup capital” system in the event of a national crisis (which, at the initiative of the Ishin no Kai, could be Osaka).

Moreover, the LDP agreed with its new ally’s proposals for public assistance measures, including reforming the pension insurance system; improving the quality of the healthcare system; and discussing a temporary suspension of the food consumption tax. A similar dynamic could be observed in the coalition with Komeito, which promoted similar measures and, in return, supported most of the LDP’s initiatives. The only difference was that Komeito’s pacifism constrained the LDP’s defense plans; Ishin no Kai, however, was a more convenient party for Sanae Takaichi in this regard. And not only in this.

For example, the Ishin no Kai supports the LDP’s hardline stance on foreigners. The parties promise to introduce stricter measures against illegal foreign activity in Japan and establish quotas for the admission of foreigners. However, given Sanae Takaichi’s early statements about a complete overhaul of immigration policy, it is unlikely that the measures against foreigners will be limited to those we have listed.

The LDP also benefits from the fact that, while the Ishin no Kai plans to reform the political funds system, it is not pushing for a rush. The parties decided to create a consultative body to reach a decision on this issue within Sanae Takaichi’s LDP presidential term, i.e., within two years. Essentially, the solution to this publicly disturbing issue has been postponed for several more years, during which time much could change, and the scandal itself could be hushed up.

It is also interesting to note that the new coalition plans to create a Bureau of Government Efficiency, which will focus on optimizing government revenues and expenditures. The name seems to allude to the Department of Government Efficiency created by Donald Trump, which significantly cut budget spending on social benefits, public projects, and humanitarian aid to foreign countries. Japan’s Bureau of Government Efficiency will address similar issues. It is unlikely to pursue policies as reckless as its American namesake, but the risk of similar excesses should not be discounted.

It is also important to note that the Ishin no Kai dietmen declined the minister positions offered to Sanae Takaichi. Party members don’t fully trust the LDP and don’t want to lose face when their party ministers fail to fulfil their promises to the electorate due to the fault of a coalition ally. This demonstrates the parties’ mistrust of each other and the instability of the alliance. However, the coalition with Komeito was also viewed as temporary by both parties at the time of its formation, so it is too early to judge the stability of the new alliance at this stage.

Conclusions

After Komeito left the coalition with the LDP, the largest conservative party moved closer to the Ishin no Kai, whose views appealed more to Sanae Takaichi. Now, there is no force in the Japanese parliament that could restrain the course of militarization and measures against foreign immigrants. This course could bring Japan even closer to the United States under Donald Trump, but could also provoke a negative reaction from Japan’s neighbours, limiting its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. The Ishin no Kai also has its own ambitions, and if the LDP supports them, Japan will once again be able to test whether neoliberal ideals are truly compliant.

However, it’s important to note that each of these measures will place a heavy burden on Japan’s budget and increase the country’s already bloated public debt. Therefore, it’s possible that the ruling forces will be cautious about implementing their promises.

Daniil Romanenko, Japanologist, researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Courtesy 

https://journal-neo.su/2025/10/22/japan-new-prime-minister-new-coalition-new-concerns/